中国消费品及零售行业研究.pdf

CHINA The China Diviner

4 December 2007 The Silver Year of the Consumer

Rural spending has disappointed Not quite golden, but a good runner-up
Real consumption spending, %YOY ƒ It never was the Year of the Golden Pig, and it hasn’t quite proven to be the
25 Golden Year of the Consumer that we predicted back in March either. We
Rural Urban
20 aren’t worried though. Speaking to a number of panies and
poring over the numbers, we still think the outlook for consumption is strong.
15
10 ƒ Our optimism earlier in the year was based on rural e growth, driven by
rising food prices and increasing wages. Coupled with continued strong
5
e growth and rising asset prices in urban areas, we expected this to lay
0 the foundations for the strongest consumption growth since the mid-1990s.
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 ƒ In the end, rural spending hasn’t changed much from 2006. But this isn’t a low
base parison, and in cities spending has picked up. Also, the spending
Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, December 2007
drivers that we foresaw, notably rural e growth, have played out nicely.
…but the drivers are nicely in place ƒ This background, together with positive reports from retailers, suggests the
% change outlook remains strong. Our 2008 theme of a ary-led upturn in CPI,
Nominal GDP Rural Y Urban Y asset prices and construction