维稳政策差异化执行的影响与成因.pdf

112维稳政策差异化执行的影响与成因:以2005 年信访改革为例 34侯麟科陶郁刘明兴①56The Consequences and Causes of the Heterogeneous Implementation of Stability Maintenance Policy 7in Rural China: Evidence from the 2005 Reform on the System of Letters and Visits 89摘要:10本文基于有代表性的全国抽样数据,系统考察了2005年信访改革在农村基层的差异性影11响。信访改革有效地消减了农村信访数量并减轻了各级机关的信访压力,但对大规模群体性上12访的效果并不明显,甚至一定程度上刺激了非信访群体性事件。导致上述差异的关键,在于基13层干部采用了不同手段和策略来执行消减信访的政策。具体来说,在执行策略摇摆不定的村庄,14消解信访可能额外激发制度外抗争;而在执行策略稳定的情况下,无论采用温和手段化解矛盾15还是强硬手段压制抗争,都不会额外激发制度外抗争。我们继而发现,造成基层干部出现执行16手段和策略分野的原因,在于地方权力结构和资源禀赋的差异。具体来说,外来乡镇领导更可17能追求短期效应,导致基层干部执行策略摇摆不定;本地乡镇领导更可能保证执行策略稳定,18在此情况下,拥有集体资源的村庄更容易建立良性纠纷调解制度,而缺乏集体资源的村庄则更19容易走向“内卷化”。2021Abstract 22Based on representative national survey data, this paper systematically investigates the 23heterogeneous impacts of the 2005 reform on the system of letters and visits in rural China. The 24reform, whilst ably reduced letters and visits to all levels of governments, appeared to have little 25effect on reducing large-scale collective petitioning and even triggered more transgressive collective 26incidents. The key reason for such pattern, we argue, lies on the various means and strategies through 27which grassroots cadres implemented the reform. On one hand, villages where local cadres took 28inconsistent implementing strategies witnessed a more rapid increase in transgressive contention 29after the reform. On the other hand, no significant difference in regard to the amount of transgressive 30contention is observed in villages where local cadres took consistent repressing or mediating 31strategies to implement the reform. The variation in local cadres’ implementing means and strategies, 32we suggest, depends on the power structure they face and the resources they have. More specifically, 33grassroots cadres are more likely to take pragmatic implementing strategies under township leaders e from outside and are hence often myopic, whereas they are more likely to hold 35implementing strategiesunder indigenous township , i