我国出口贸易增长波动的影响因素分析.doc

辽宁科技大学本科生毕业设计(论文) 第I页我国出口贸易增长波动的影响因素分析摘要改革开放 30年来,我国出口导向型的发展战略取得了显著成效,外贸的迅速发展, 使出口成为和投资并重的拉动经济增长的三大马车之一。目前,我国的出口贸易额已跃居世界第一,进出口总额排名世界第三。然而,我国高度外向型的经济是比较脆弱的。近年来,受国际金融危机和世界经济衰退的影响,出口增长放缓,波动加剧,出口贸易的波动性势必会影响我国经济的平稳增长。本文研究的目的就是要找出影响中国出口长期增长和短期波动的各种因素,从而找到促进出口长期增长的对策和平滑出口短期波动的建议。本文在前人研究成果的基础上,研究了出口贸易波动对中国经济的影响,指出出口贸易波动通过资源配置、投资、就业、技术进步和外汇储备五个渠道影响宏观经济,从传统国际贸易理论出发,本文分析了影响我国出口贸易增长波动的需求因素、供给因素、制度因素和结构因素,并提出了实现我国出口平稳增长的长期措施和短期措施。关键词:出口贸易;增长波动;影响因素;分析辽宁科技大学本科生毕业设计(论文) 第 II页 The Effect Factors Analysis of the Fluctuation of Export Growth in China Abstract After 30 years ’ development of reform and opening up, the export — oriented strategy of China had achieved a lotof significant results so that export has e one of three huge horse-drawn vehicals equal with investment . At present ,our export ranks first in the world and the total of import and export ranks third in the world . However,our export is very fragile because of its high dependence on the foreign market . So , it sharply drops down when encountering international financial crisis. The purpose of this paper is seeking out the factors which influence our export ’s long-term growth and short-term fluctuation. The paper based on the traditional international trade theory,from the qualitative aspect analyzes the demand factor,the supply actor,the system factor and the structure factor which effect export growth fluctuation . Based on parative analysis , the ending of paper proposed long — term measures and the short-term measures for Our export steady growth . Key Words: Export trade ; Growth fluctuation; Influencing factor; Analysis 辽宁科技大学本科生毕业设计(论文) 第 III页目录第一部分绪论.................................................................................................. 1 一、选题背景及目的..................................................................................................... 1 二、国内外研究现状..................................................................................................... 2 (一)国外研究现状............................