时间数列分析ppt课件.ppt

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BenefitsandUsesofTimeSeries
Benefitsoftimeseries
Monitorsalesperformanceovertime…removevariationinmonthlysalescausedbycalendardifferencesandseasonalitythatcanconcealpotentialproblemswithsales
Accuratelydeterminethedirectionandrateofgrowth/declineinsales
Quicklyidentifychangesinsalestrendsandcorrelatethemtofactorsaffectingsales…industry,company,competition
Improvedecisionmakingregardingsalesandmarketingactions
Usesoftimeseries
Assesscurrentsalesperformanceandevaluatetheeffectivenessofsalesprograms
Determineunderlyingsalestrendandprojectyearendsales
Establishappropriatebudgetsfornextyearandestimatemonthlybudgetspreads
TimeseriesanalysisistheprimarysalesanalysistechniqueatA-B
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TimeSeriesAnalysis
WhatisTimeSeriesAnalysis?
HowareTimeSeriesplotsdeveloped?
WhataretheadvantagesofTimeSeriesAnalysis?
WhatareTimeSeriesusedfor?
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WhatisTimeSeriesAnalysis?
Timeseriesanalysisisastatisticaltechniqueusedtoanalyzeandmonitorsalesvolumeovertime.
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WhyTimeSeries?
Beersalesarehighlyseasonal
Itisverydifficulttoevaluatemonthlysalesovertime.
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Howdotimeserieswork?
Monthlyvariationinsalesiscausedbytwomajorfactors
Seasonality
SellingDays(calendareffects)
TimeSeriestechniquestatisticallyremovestheeffectsofthesetwofactors
TimeSeriestechniqueusestheX-11procedureforseasonaladjustments
TheX-’-Bintheearly1960’sandhasbecomethestandardforreportingsales.
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Howdotimeseriesadjustsales?
Asellingdayadjustmentfactorforeachmonthiscomputedandappliedtotherawsales
Thisfactorallowsyoutocomparemonthsasiftheyhadthesamenumberofsellingdays…
Aseasonalfactoriscomputedandappliedtothesellingdayadjustedsales
Thisfactor,whenapplied,givesyoumonthlydatadirectlycomparabletoanyothermonth…
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SellingDays
Allotherthingsbeingequal,salesinAug-%-03saleswillhavetobeadjustedup+%.
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Seasonality
Seasonalityisexpressedasanindexforamonthcomparedtoanaveragemonth.
Amonthwheresaleswere20%higherthanaveragewouldhaveaseasonalfactorof120.
Amonthwhichwas10%lowerthanaveragewouldhaveaseasonalfactorof90.
StrongSeasonality
NoSeasonality
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AdjustingSales
RawSalesXSellingDayFactor÷SeasonalFactor
SeasonallyAdjustedSales=
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