近半世纪华北干旱化趋势研究.pdf

近半世纪华北干旱化趋势研究.PDFSee discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at:
https://lication/284685873
Drought trend in North China in recent half
century
Article · January 2002
CITATIONS READS
11 23
3 authors, including:
Qingxiang Li
Sun Yat-Sen University
72 PUBLICATIONS 1,672 CITATIONS
SEE PROFILE
Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects:
Statistical techniques for Climate Applications View project
Urban Heat Island effect on Surface air temperature View project
All content following this page was uploaded by Qingxiang Li on 06 June 2016.
The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.
11 卷 3 期自然灾害学报 Vol. 11 ,No. 3
2002 年 8 月 JOURNAL OF NATURAL DISASTERS Aug. ,2002
文章编号:100424574 (2002) 0320050207
近半世纪华北干旱化趋势研究
李庆祥,刘小宁,李小泉
(国家气象中心, 北京 100081)
摘要:首先,提出了一种新的干湿指数,该指数的主要特点是它是相对于一地的水份需要量而言的,并
且针对干旱的特点,考虑了前期降水对近期干旱现象的贡献。利用该指数,对我国华北近几十年来的
干湿变化进行了讨论,发现近半个世纪以来,华北的干旱化趋势是十分明显的。其次,对华北干旱化
的季节结构和周期性变化特点进行了研究,得出了一些有意义的结论。最后,讨论了近年来华北的连
续干旱现象,指出近两年来的连续干旱是近 50 年来最为严重的,并且到目前为止仍没有明显的结束
趋势,值得我们进一步关注。
关键词:水份需要量;华北干旱;干湿指数;周期性
中图分类号:S423 文献标识码:A
Drought trend in North China in recent half century
LI Qing2xiang , LIU Xiao2ning , LI Xiao2quan
(National Meteorological Center , Beijing 100081 ,China)
Abstract :A new index for drought and wetness is presented , which characterizes demand of water in so