麦肯锡_伊拉克重建机会的研究分析咨询报告PPT31.ppt

OVERVIEW OF THE IRAQ OPPORTUNITY
Doing Business in Iraq
Amman, 3th June 2005
Achmed Al-Shahrabani
McKinsey & Company, Inc.
AGENDA
Overview Iraq
Economic scenarios for Iraq
Required investments
Total area: 437,000 m2
Limited arable land
Arable land: 11%
Permanent crops: 1%
Desert: 88%
Largest governates
Baghdad ()
Nineveh ()
Basra ()
Varying climate (Baghdad)
Summer temp: 35-50º
Winter temp: 5-15º
Rainfall: 155mm/year
Source: Country Watch, CIA world fact book
Car transport
39,000 km paved roads
765,000 privately registered passenger cars
266,000 privately registered trucks
Air
Major airports in Baghdad, Basra and Mosul
Three major railway routes
Baghdad–Kirkuk–Irbil
Baghdad–Mosul–Yurubiyah
Baghdad–Maagal–Umm Qasr
3% ration, no work
Utilities
250 water treatment facilities
Power generation capacity of 9500 (pre 1990), currently at 1800MW
Geography and climate
Infrastructure
The majority of Iraq is characterized by desert
OVERVIEW IRAQI GEOGRAPHY
Source: World outlook, EIU country risk report Iraq
50% of population younger than 16 years
28% of population is labor force
Approximately 51% males
75% of population resides in urban areas
There is an estimated 1m–2m Iraqi’s living in exile
Fertility rate –5 children per women
Adult literacy at 54%
- million foreign workers
Key facts
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2002
CAGR 3%
DEVELOPMENT IRAQI POPULATION 1980 TO 2002
Iraqi population amounts to more than 24 millions
Million
Source: CIA world fact book
100% =
Others
Arabs- Shia Muslims
Kurds – Sunni Muslims
4
62
12
Arabs – Sunni Muslims
22
ESTIMATE
POPULATION SIZE BY ETHNIC GROUP
Shia Muslims form Iraq’s ethnic majority
%
Adult literacy at 54% (vs. 75% in Iran)
* From 6 to 23 years
Source: EIU country profile Iraq 2002
1980
1998
EDUCATION ENROLMENT RATIO FOR ALL AGES* - 1980 VS. 1998
An increasing number of children does not receive formal education
ESTIMATE
Source: Country Watch
Proven reserves
Un