出口和经济增长间的因果关系研究—来自南亚国家的证据【外文原文】.pdf

MPRA
Munich Personal RePEc Archive
Causality between Export and Growth:
Evidence from South Asian Countries
Eusuf, M Abu and Ahmed, Mansur
Department of Development Studies, University of Dhaka,
Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS)
20. December 2007
Online at -/
MPRA Paper No. 21027, posted 28. February 2010 / 13:01
Causality between Export and Growth: Evidence from South Asian Countries

M. Abu Eusuf* and Mansur Ahmed†

Abstract
Strong economic growth panied with robust export performance leads many people
to conclude that export sector of a country has pivotal role in the economic growth of that
country. Empirical evidence on export growth nexus has been mixed and inconclusive. This
study examined whether there was any time series support for such export-led growth
hypothesis for South Asian Countries. Engle-Granger's Error Correction Model (ECM) was
used to test the Granger causality between export and output. The study had produced fairly
mixed results, and did not find any conclusive evidence in favor of export-led growth for
South Asian Countries. While Pakistan, Srilanka and Bhutan were the cases of export-led
growth, India, Nepal, and Maldives show the opposite result of growth-led exports. In one
country, namely Bangladesh, the data had failed to detect any causality in either direction
which is attributed in low value addition in export.
Key Words: Export-led growth hypothesis, Granger causality test, Unit Root Tests, Error Correction Model.


I. Introduction:

The export-led growth hypothesis (ELGH) postulates that export expansion is one of the main
determinants of economic growth. It holds that the overall growth of countries can be generated
not only by increasing the amounts of labor and capital within the economy, but also by
expanding exports. Economists behind export-led growth hypothesis consider exports can
perform as an “engi