住房危机的真正问题【外文翻译】.doc

本科毕业论文(设计)
外文翻译
外文出处 MORTGAGE BANKING, OCTOBER 2010
外文作者 Joe Monti And Frank Terzuoli
原文:
THE REAL problems :THE HOUSING CRISIS 62-68
Real estate values, which bubbled up at an unsustainable annual clip of 20 percent in some markets in the years leading up to the mortgage crisis, may not have hit bottom yet, at least in many key markets. Home prices were up percent in April 2010 from a year earlier, according to the Standard &Poor's (S&P)/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes, but eight of the top 20 markets were still near their bottoms and not rising, including the New York City metro, which continues to drop. So the mortgage crisis could reassert itself and be every bit as bad as advertised—or worse. Consider the following: Housing supply and demand are not approaching equilibrium. The so-called shadow inventory—which includes both lender real estate-owned (RFO) property that has not yet cleared the market as well as homes that otherwise mobile sellers are reluctant to list in a down market—is conservatively estimated to be 3 percent of all households (according to Core Logic, Santa Ana, California), and could be as high as 13 percent (according to analysts at Amherst Securities Group LP, Austin, Texas). This is creating downward pressure on prices in many markets. A May 2010 Morgan Stanley report estimates the inventory will take 47 months to clear.
According to the State Foreclosure Prevention Working Group (SFPWG), prime loans—as opposed to subprime loans that catalyzed the crisis—are increasingly driving the rising delinquency rates. As the number of loans in the process of foreclosure increased by 52 percent between October 2008 and October 2009, the number of prime loans in foreclosure more than doubled in each of the past two years. Prime loans now account for nearly half of all loans in foreclosure.
Principal forgiveness, the ultimate loan-modification strategy, remains anathema to lenders even though
many have already written down a sizable por