【PPT精品课件】货币金融学7版英文课件--ch26-大学课.pptx

该【【PPT精品课件】货币金融学7版英文课件--ch26-大学课 】是由【小屁孩】上传分享，文档一共【21】页，该文档可以免费在线阅读，需要了解更多关于【【PPT精品课件】货币金融学7版英文课件--ch26-大学课 】的内容，可以使用淘豆网的站内搜索功能，选择自己适合的文档，以下文字是截取该文章内的部分文字，如需要获得完整电子版，请下载此文档到您的设备，方便您编辑和打印。Chapter26TransmissionMechanismsaryPolicy:TheEvidence? MiIYReducedFormEvidenceM?YStructuralModelEvidenceAdvantages:1. UnderstandcausationbecausemoreinformationonlinkbetweenMandY2. KnowinghowMaffectsYhelpsprediction3. CanpredicteffectsofinstitutionalchangesthatchangelinkfromMtoYDisadvantages:1. Structuralmodelmaybewrong,negatingalladvantages?:1. NorestrictionsonhowMaffectsY:betterabletofindlinkfromMtoYDisadvantages:1. Reversecausationpossible2. ThirdfactormayproducecorrelationofMandY3?:1. GreatDepression:i?onT-bondstolowlevels?arypolicywas“easy”2. NostatisticallinkfromitoI3. Surveys:nolinkfromitoIObjectionstoKeynesianevidenceProblemswithstructuralmodel1. ionT-bondsnotrepresentativeduringDepression:iveryhighonlow-gradebonds:. irmorerelevantthani:irhighduringDepression:Figure13. Ms?duringDepression(FriedmanandSchwartz):money“tight”4. WrongstructuralmodeltolookatlinkofiandI,shouldlookatirandI:evidencein1and2suspect??(FriedmanandSchwartz)1. PeakinMsgrowth16monthsbeforepeakinYonaverage2. LagisvariableCriticisms:1. Usesprinciple:Posthoc,ergopropterhoc2. Principleonlyvalidiffirsteventisexogenous:.,ifhavecontrolledexperiment3. Hypotheticalexample(Fig2):ReversecausationfromYtoMandyetMsgrowthleadsY6??M/MleadsY7?:correlationofAvsMwithY;FriedmanandMeiselman,MwinsCriticisms:1. ReversecausationfromYtoM,orthirdfactordriving MandYarepossible2. Keynesianmodeltoosimple,unfairhandicap3. AmeasurepoorlyconstructedPostmortemwithdifferentmeasuresofA:noclear-cutvictory8?:. ImportantascriticismofKeynesianevidenceonGreatDepression2. Documentstimingevidencearistevidence:Episodesarealmostlike“controlledexperiments”1. Posthoc,ergopropterhocapplies2. Historyallowsrulingoutofreversecausationandthirdfactor:.,1936–37riseinreserverequirementsand1937-38recession9?-RateChannels:M?,ir?,I?,Y?,,itisthelong-termirandnottheshort-,an?inMleadstoa?inshorttermiandalso?,thisalso?long-?inshort-andlong-termirleadstoan?:=0,M?,Pe?,?e?,ir?,CandI?,Y?10?2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.