气候变化对中国农业生产的影响及应对策略.pdf

该【气候变化对中国农业生产的影响及应对策略 】是由【小屁孩】上传分享，文档一共【6】页，该文档可以免费在线阅读，需要了解更多关于【气候变化对中国农业生产的影响及应对策略 】的内容，可以使用淘豆网的站内搜索功能，选择自己适合的文档，以下文字是截取该文章内的部分文字，如需要获得完整电子版，请下载此文档到您的设备，方便您编辑和打印。:..???????Б2010?7??18??4?ChineseJournalofEco-Agriculture,July2010,18(4):905?910DOI:.*??э????????????????1,21,23刘彦随刘玉郭丽英(1.???????????????К?100101;2.??????????????????????К?100101;3.???????????????????К?100081)??全球气候呈现变暖的趋势,对农业生产和粮食安全产生重大影响,并成为当今全球环境变化关注的热点问题之一。本文采用文献综述与比较研究的方法,系统分析了气候变化对光资源、温度、土壤质量和水环境等农业生产要素的影响机理,探讨了气候变化对我国作物种植区域和种植制度、农作物病虫害、农业生产能力以及农业经济与管理等方面的实际影响,通过梳理国外应对气候变化的主要农业战略,提出新时期我国应对气候变化的农业可持续发展策略。???农业生产粮食安全气候变化应对策略中国???щ??A:?????;:???:1671-3990(2010)04-0905-06hangeonagriculturalproductionandresponsestrategiesinChinaLIUYan-Sui1,2,LIUYu1,2,GUOLi-Ying3(,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100101,China;,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100101,China;-tuteofNaturalResourcesandRegionalPlanning,ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences,Beijing100081,China)-productionandfoodsecurity—-,thepapersystematicallysummarizesinfluencingmechanismsandeffectofclimatewarmingonsuchagro-productionfactorsaslight,temperature,-gions,croppingsystems,croppests,agro-productioncapacity,agro-,suitablecli-mate-adaptedagro--production,Foodsecurity,hange,Responsestrategy,China(,2009;acceptedMarch18,2010)1气候变化的主要特点?????????a????a??????????э???????????э?,??????????,??????????????????a??????????????,??a??,?????????????????b????????????????????????э???????????????????[1]????,??э??b]3]???????????ν?b????????a???????Ч??????ν??????????[4],??????????,???????????Ч,?????????????a???????[2]b?????????????????,?????*??????????(40871257,40635029)?????????????(973??)??(2006CB400505)?????(1965~),?,??a???a?????,????????????????????bE-mail:******@igsnrr.????:2009-11-11????:2010-03-18:..906???????Б2010?18???????b?????????э?,?????э????????????????a????????????,?????э?????????э??????,??????э????????э??????[5]??a?a?a?a?a??????????э??b?4???Б????a???????,?2005~1906,????a????????100??,??????????￥,К??????????(?1)b????э??????????,????????????????????,￥±???????????[5]b???????????????b??????????,????????a????a??????????????????????????????????К???????,??[6?9]bCO????????,??20~100???????????????a?????????2?????????[10]b2020?????????[13]?,????????a???????b??б1950s??￥,??????????[11]b???a?????????????????b21???,????э????~5￥??,??????%~20%;К????,????????????,?????????????????????????К?;????э?,?a?????????b????????????????????[12]b?1990s??,?????????????????????????,??????,??э??????????????[14]?2~3?????????????????b???b??,??????э?????????,??????э????????,??????э???????????????????(SARD)?????????????????????????????????b????????????????b?????2气候变化对农业生产的影响???0￥??????????????????????????????,?????????????????????;????????????,???????????;???10￥???????????????????э????,???1951:????b??????????a?????б,????????э??a??????????,??????????,???????????????10￥a?0￥???????????????[15]b1979~2005?????????10￥???:..?4?????:??э????????????????907?????,?Кa?Кa?????????;?????????????????b??К??????10￥????????0~5d,??э??????????????????0~5d;??????10￥??????????????????????0~5d[16]b??????(GHG)?????,???????????э?????,????????К?????????????К?,????,?э??,????????????b?К??1961~2005?????????????,????????,??????К?,?????:?0￥????????????????????,????????￥cdc10a?1;?10￥???????????,??b??,?????????,???????????0￥?????[17]b??,??э?????????????????????????,????????????[21]b20??90??????????э???э??????????,?К????????,????????К????a???????[24];?К???????????????????????,??????,???????К??К??[25];???????,??????????????b??????????????????????????????К??К??,??????????????????????[26]b???????????????????????,???????????b??????,?????,???￥a????%????,?????????,%???%?????????,??????;??????????????[18]%???%,??????????%??,???????????b??э??????%[27]b?????????????,?э??????[19]????????????C-N??,?????????????????????????a??????,???,??????????????????b??,???b????????????????К????э???,???????????????????э?????????a????????,????????,???????????ν???,??????????a??????,????????????????a[20]К????????э?,???????a???????b???????????????[28]????????????????b?К????????,????????,???????э????????,????????a????b[29]????;?????????????????э?????????,????????????[30]b??э?????э???э??????????,К??,???????a??a????????????????a??,?????????????1~2?;?????￥????,???????,???????????????????К???К??3￠??[31]b2006~2007??15%,????????????[21]b??э????,?????????????????,?????????????,????b????????????????????,???????????,???????????????b????,?????a???a????????????М????????????,?????[32]b??????????,??э???????????????????,?????????????????????????э??????????,????????[22]b????э?????,?К??a??????2OC????????a??????К???э??b??????????,???????К???????э?a????????????[23]??a?????Б???,???a?????????????????[33]b???э????,????,????????????????????????????????????????Ч????;?????????????;???????????????????b]34]?????,?????,????????????????????;?????:..908???????Б2010?18????????э?a???????a??????a??????????,???????????????????????a?,￥1????????????b]35]????????????????3%~10%b???a????????ш???,???????,??20????????????%[36]b???????,????????a????????????????????????,?????????,????????????????,??????CO2,?????????CO???;]37]????????????????[40]b?????,????2??????,???????a???a??a????a????a????a??????????????????????;????CO2???????????????;?????,????????????a?????????b]38]%12~%???????,???????????????????????????????[41]b??????,??э?????????????,?????????a??????a????????Ч??b????,??????????????GHG???????[42]b???????????????????,???????b??????????К????,????????????????,????????,????????????????ь???a??????C3???????,??GHG????????????????4C?[40]b?????????????b????????????????)3(??????????[13]b??э??????????????????э????????????????b???,????????,??????b????э???,????????a?????Сa?????????????????,???э?,??,??????????????????????????????b???????????????????э????[43]b??????1990~2007?,????????2548€104hm2,??a?????????????э?????????1357€104hm2;???????1304€???,?????э???????????ν104hm2,????746€104hm2b2007?,????????????????,????????????????????????????????[44]b?????????????,?€104hm2,????????[32],??????????,??????????????????????????????????????,????????a????a????????b??????,????э?????????,????????????э???????[45]b3应对气候变化的主要农业发展策略б????,????????????a????a??????????э??????????????????????(1)??????э??????b??э??э?;?????????a????a???a????э????????????????,????a??????????????,???????э??х?,?????????????????э?[46]b?????э??????????b????????ν???????????????:??,????a????????,??GHG??????????????????a???,??????????Ч???????????э??????,2OC????????Ч????с??????э???????????????????,????;???b?э????,???????э????????????????????????э??????????b??????????Ч??:??????,?????????????????20~30?,????????????????,??,???????????b???????????????????Ч????)1(b?э?????,(2)?э????,????????b?????????????э??????,????Ф???????????ν??a?ν?????????????a????a????a??????????????????[39]b???????????????,??????????????????a??????a??????????????a?????,???????:..?4?????:??э????????????????909?????????a???????????????????э??????[J].??э?????,????????,?????????????2005,1(1):4?9?э???э??,?????????????[6]???,???,???.?????????40????????????bэ???[J].????,2007,27(4):499?505(2)??э?????????????э?,[7]???,???,???,?.?????????????????э???э??b???????ν?????????[J].?????Б,2008,24(3):254?258[8]???,???,???,?.??????э???????К??????????ш?????????????????[J].?????????,2007,23(5):??,???????????????????82?85??????,ш??????????????[9]???,?ν?,???.???К???43???э????????????b????????????????????[J].????????,2005,23(2):??a????????,?э????????195?201???,????ш??С??????????[10]???,???,???,?.??э?????Б?(ú):????????????b????э?????????[J].??э?????,(3)????????,??????э??2006,2(1):3?8????b????????э????.???,???,???]11]?????????,??????????,??э???????????????[J].К??????Б:?????,2003,2(2):16?20???[47],??????a????(?????a[12]???,??,??.-AR4?????21????э??????[J].????,2008,27(4):787?799?????a??????)???????b??[13]???,???,???,?.??э???????????????????????a????,??[M].К?:?????,2003??????????????ν??,????[14]???,???,??,?.?????????э???????????a?????????,??????????[J].???????Б,2009,17(1):???????????????????b115?119(4)????????????????b??[15]???,???,???,?.1978??a????10￥?????????????,????????????б[J].?????Б,2008,19(8):1810?1816??,??????????;????????[16]???,???,???.?К???45?????????,?????????????,?????э?????[J].??????,2009,30(1):19?24?a??????;??????э????a?[17]???,???,??,?.??э???????????????[J].?????Б,2009,24(5):934?944?a????????????,???????[18]??,???,???.???????????????a??????a?????????????;????[J].?????,2007,26(2):278?285????????,?????????????[19]???,??????.?,???,?????э?????????????????,????????N?????[J].?????Б,2007,31(2):252?261?????????????b???????a[20]LiuYS,WangDW,,theen-??????a????э?,???????vironmentandwaterresourcesinnortheastChina[J].Envi-??????????????????????ronmentalManagement,2005,36(5):691?701??b[21]???,???,???,?.??э?????Б?(?):??э???????[J].??э?????,2006,2(2):参考文献51?56[1]???,???.??????э?????????[22]???,??,??.??э????????????????[J].????,2009(3):17?19[J].?????,2003(2):22?24[2]???,???.?????????????э????.???,???]23]эФ?/????????????????[J].????,2002,21(3):324?341?[J].??????,2008,44(4):50?53[3]???.????э???????????????[J].[24]??,???,ю??,?.??э?????????????Б,1996,51(3):202?212???????[J].?????Б,2008,17(3):41?48[4]???,???,???,?.???????????б[25]???,?ν?,???.???К????э??????[J].??э?????,2009,5(2):71?78???[J].?????Б,2005,20(1):119?125[5]???,???,???,?.????????э??(I):[26]??,???,???.??э???????????:..910???????Б2010?18????[J].?????Б,2007,27(5):137?140[39]DelGrossoSJ,OjimaDS,PartonWJ,[27][J].ActaMeteorologicaSinica,1997,mitigationstrategiesforcroppedsoils[J].11(4):407?415Change,2009,67(1/2):44?50[28]???,????????.?,???,???????[40]Verge′XPC,deKimpeC,????[J].?????Б,2005,14(1):90?97production,greenhousegasemissionsandmitigationpoten-[29]???.??э???К??????????????tial[J].AgriculturalandForestMeteorology,2007,142(2/4):[J].??????,1997,5(3):45?48255?269[30]???,???,???.??э??????????[41]HutchinsonJJ,CampbellCA,-?????[J].????????,2005,19(4):155?158spectivesoncarbonsequestrationinagriculture[J].Agricul-[31]???.??э?????????????[J].???turalandForestMeteorology,2007,142(2/4):288?302???,1993,14(1):41?47[42]PathakH,-[32]???????????.????????(2007?)[M].tionasadevelopmentobjectiveinrice-basedagriculture:?:?????,2008Generationoftechnicalcoefficients[J].AgriculturalSystems,[33]MiragliaM,MarvinHJP,,94(3):807?825foodsafety:Anemergingissuewithspecialfocuson[43]BryanE,DeressaTT,GbetibouoGA,[J].Foodand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