麦格理-全球-宏观经济-2018年全球经济与市场展望.pdf

2018 Global Economic
and Market Outlook
Make hay while the sun shines…
Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited As 2017 draws to a close, bination of good global growth and low inflation
Ric Deverell
+61 2 8232 4307 has seen risk assets move substantially higher. However, despite the strong
@ gains, the rally has been among the most unloved in history, as many investors
have remained on the sidelines, worried about valuation and the risk of further
shocks.
Over the following 96 pages we provide detailed forecasts for the global
economy and major markets.
While the consensus remains nervous, we feel that the global economy has
finally moved onto a stronger footing, with above average growth likely to persist
over 2018, notwithstanding a slowdown in China. This, combined with still low
interest rates should see current ‘goldilocks’ conditions continue well into 2018.
We note, however, that investors should make hay while the sun shines, as 2019
is likely to be more dangerous as stronger wages and inflation in the US along
November 2017 with the first rate hike in Europe, collide with further China weakness.
Please refer to page 98 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website
earch/disclosures.
Macquarie Research 2018 global economic and market outlook




Analysts Contents
Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited
Ric Deverell Executive summary ....................................................................................... 3
+61 2 8232 4307 @
Justin Fabo Global economic outlook ............................................................................... 5
+612 8232 0696 @
Jason Todd, CFA Topical Essays .............................................................................................. 7
+61 2 8237 3134 @
Give me higher wages, inflation and yields O Lord, but not just yet…. ......... 8
Ma