麦格理-印度-宏观经济-印度经济宏观数据综述：渐进式增长恢复；宏观面稳定.pdf

INDIA India Economics
Key data releases (Nov-17 vs Oct-17) Macro data roundup–Gradual growth
recovery; macro stability in check
In this monthly publication we endeavour to provide a one stop shop for all key
macro data releases in the month, along with a chart pack of key macro
indicators to track.
Growth indicators: External demand gathering momentum
. Industrial production: IP growth slowed in October partly on account of
festival-related holidays. The monthly data tends to be volatile, and therefore
we prefer to look at the three month trailing trend, which has been on an
Source: CEIC, GoI, Macquarie Research, December 2017 improving path over the last 3 months.
*IP current month is Oct-17 and previous is Sep-17 . Export growth: Export growth accelerated to %YoY in Nov-17 after a
^Rabi sowing current is for week of Dec 15th , previous is contraction last month. While modity prices have helped, non-
week of Dec modity export growth rose to the highest in 7 months.
#CAD current is for QE Sep-17m, previous is QE Jun-17
. Non-oil non-gold imports: Non-oil non-gold import growth (as a proxy for
domestic demand) accelerated to a 6 month high of % in Nov-17, with
capital goods imports turning positive after 2 months of contraction.
. Rabi sowing area: Area under cultivation for winter crop (Rabi) picked up
pace, growing by 1%YoY for week ended Dec 15th. Area under cultivation for
wheat, which is main the Rabi crop, saw a decline of 2%YoY, while area
under pulses rose by 9%.
Macro stability: Price stability worsened at the margin,
external stability maintained
. CPI: November CPI inflation accelerated to a 15-month high of %YoY.
Inflation was expected to edge higher on the back of vegetable price spike,
however the upside surprise was driven by a faster momentum in core
inflation, which rose to 5% in Nov.
. WPI: November WPI inflation accelerated to a 7-month high of %YoY vs.
% in Oct. T