麦格理-印度-宏观经济-印度经济政策：中立而非鹰派.pdf

INDIA India Economics
Trend in policy rates RBI policy – Neutral not hawkish
Wtd Avg Call Rate Repo Rate
Reverse Repo MSF .
% Conclusion: The RBI kept policy rates on hold, as per expectations.
However, the RBI marginally raised the inflation forecasts and lowered its
%
GVA forecast, reflecting the ing data. We read the policy statement as
% neutral (not hawkish) with a cautious tone highlighting potential risks to
% inflation – as was expected. We expect the RBI to be on pause in 2018 as it
% balances between a nascent growth recovery and a volatile inflation
trajectory. In our view, the potential upside risks to inflation from elevated oil
% prices, the government’s policy around MSP hikes and associated risks on the
t-16 t-17
c-17
c-16
n-17
pr-17 fiscal side will keep the MPC on a vigilant mode in ing future. While
eb-17 eb-18
ug-17
Oc A Oc
Ju
F F
De De
A we are not yet pencilling in a rate hike in CY18, we believe if inflation
Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, February 2018 trajectory remains higher than the RBI’s expectation for 2HFY19 and/or
growth pickup is stronger than anticipated, the RBI will be forced to hike
rates in the later part of 2018.
Trend in Inflation Details
16% Headline CPI inflation
YoY% .
14% RBI kept policy rates on hold – in line with expectations: The RBI kept
Core C