麦格理-印度-宏观经济-印度经济：psu银行如何影响增长前景？.pdf

INDIA India Economics
FY19 growth can improve with faster
capex growth How does the PSU bank recap impact
9% the growth outlook?
5% Bottom line: PSU bank recap by itself may not lead to an immediate
improvement in growth; however, it will be an enabler to kick-start the capex
cycle. The government’s focus on infrastructure investment is another positive
1%
and could fill the lacuna due to weak / delayed private capex spending.
Discrepancies .
-3% Growth has been weak, not just because of transitory factors: GDP
Net Exports
Gross Capital Formation growth has witnessed a slowdown over the last five quarters, which can be
Final Consumption Expenditure
-7% GDP at mp attributed to the weak trend in capex and exports, two important engines of
F2016 F2017 F2018E F2019E growth. Indeed, consumption has been the mainstay of growth, which has
Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, October 2017 been supported by generous government spending. While a part of the recent
slowdown can be attributed to the disruptions caused by the ization
and implementation of GST, in our view, the slowdown reflects the uneven
Upside risks to FY19 growth growth driven only by consumption, as other drivers failed to take off in the
interim.
Real GDP Growth, YoY%
%
Base . Private capex has been has been on a weak trend …: The more often than
% % %