麦格理-印度-宏观经济-印度经济：复苏延迟-20170914-macquarie-india economics：delayed growth recovery.pdf

INDIA India Economics
Slow recovery in growth Delayed growth recovery
9% %
% Growth expected to slow in FY18
8% % %
%
7% %
%
6% We expect GDP growth to decelerate to % in FY18 from % in FY17. While
5% we expect the quarterly growth rate to improve from the low of 1QFY18 as the
4% economy recovers from lingering impact of ization and transitory
3%
2% disruption caused by implementation of GST, we do not expect it to be strong
1% enough to pull up the full year growth.
0%
Weak recovery in FY19 due to lack of strong drivers
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
F F F F F
2018E 2019E
F F We expect a mild recovery in growth to % in FY19 mainly due to absence of
Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, September 2017 further legs to the consumption story and still weak private capex outlook. Until
Inflation to track near 4% now, the key support to consumption has been mission awards to
government employees, lower inflation and borrowing costs. With fiscal spending
CPI Core CPI RBI's glide path expected to taper off in ing quarters, consumption growth stands on
12%
Forecasts fragile ground. Going forward, tailwinds of lower inflation, lower interest rates and
10% a revival in rural demand will help; however, we do not expect further legs to the
8%
8% consumption recovery in the absence of a full-fledged capex cycle and weak job
6%
6% 5% creation. Indeed, the sustenance of consumption recovery will increase the
4% urgency of a revival in capex cycle to create the virtuous cycle of job creation
4%
2% and e growth.
0% What can lead to a higher acceleration in growth?
ar-12 ar-13 ar-14 ar-15 ar-16 ar-17 ar-18 ar-19
ep-16 ep-18
ep-12 ep-13 ep-14 ep-15 ep-17
M M M M M M M M
S S S S S S S In our view, the key to a better growth e in FY19 hinges on the pace of
Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, September 2017 private capex revival. For a full-fledged capex cycle to materi