INDIA India Economics Key data releases (Dec-17 vs Nov-17) Macro data round-up – Growth recovery gathering pace In this monthly publication we endeavour to provide a one-stop shop for all key macro data releases in the month, along with a chart pack of key macro indicators to track. Growth indicators: Cyclical recovery in domestic demand . Domestic demand indicators: High frequency domestic demand indicators have shown a sustained improvement in Nov / Dec suggesting that growth recovery is gaining momentum post the GST related disruption. Source: CEIC, GoI, Macquarie Research, January 2018 *IP current month is Nov-17 and previous is Oct-17 IP growth for Nov came in at a two-year high, led by a pickup in ^Rabi sowing current is for week of Jan 12th, previous is manufacturing. week of Jan 5th #CAD current is for QE Sep-17, previous is QE Jun-17 PMI (manufacturing) for Dec rose to a 5-year high
Auto sales remained robust - two wheelers rose to the highest since Oct- 2010, MHCV sales rose to the highest since Jun-2010 Cement production rose to the highest since Nov-2010. . External demand remains healthy: Export growth normalised to %YoY in Dec from %YoY in Nov. Export growth in the last few months has been bumpy mainly due to the GST-related operational disruptions. On a full-year basis exports grew by % in 2017 vs. a decline of % in 2016. Macro stability: Widening at the margin, but in a manageable range . CPI: Dec CPI accelerated to a 17-month high of % in Dec (largely in line with expectations) with both food and core segments increasing. . WPI: December WPI inflation decelerated to % from % in November, lower than expectations. The deceleration in inflation was led by lower food inflation, while non-food inflation remained steady. . Trade deficit: The trade deficit rose in Dec to US$ (9% of GDP annualised) compared to US$ (% of GDP annualised