麦格理-印度-宏观经济-印度经济：持续增长的正常化.pdf

INDIA India Economics
GVA growth accelerated in line with
expectations Growth normalisation continues
10% Real GVA (YoY%) Conclusion: A continued acceleration in growth in QE Dec depicts that the
lingering impact of ization and disruption caused by GST is now in the
8%
% rear-view mirror and growth is recovering with demand normalisation. ing
6% high frequency growth data (IP, PMI, CV sales, two-wheeler sales, cement /
steel production, including core sector data for Jan) for the last three months has
4%
shown the growth recovery is gathering pace. We prefer to track the GVA growth
2% more closely (more stable data set), which showed growth improved to % in
0% QE Dec (in line with expectations). We expect this growth momentum to be
sustained and expect FY18 GVA growth at %, building in QE Mar growth at
c-13 c-14 c-15 c-16
c-17
n-14 n-15 n-16 n-17
Ju Ju Ju Ju 7–%. On GDP (at market prices), we maintain our view that FY18 GDP
De De De De De
growth will likely be at %, assuming QE Mar growth at ~%.
Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, February 2018
Summary of QE Dec GDP
GDP growth pick-up higher than Quarterly real GDP (at market prices) grew % in QE Dec, higher than
expectations consensus and our expectation of 7%YoY: pares with % YoY
growth registered in QE Sep-17 (revised upwards from %).