麦格理-印度-宏观经济-印度经济：逐步恢复增长.pdf

INDIA India Economics
GDP growth bounces to % after five
quarters of deceleration Gradual growth recovery underway
Conclusion: A bounce in GDP growth in QE Sep to % depicts that a gradual
10% Real GDP (mp) YoY%
healing of the economy is underway post the disruption caused by
8% ization and implementation of GST. We expect the activity momentum
%
6% to sustain in 2HFY18 and GDP growth to improve to ~%YoY from % in
% 1HFY18, keeping the full year FY18 growth at %. While there could be
4%
downside risks to the growth estimate from possibly lower government spending
2% and uncertainty around capex growth in 2HFY18, if the exit growth rate for QE
0% Mar-18 is around 7%, it will be a reasonable e in our view. We expect
RBI to keep policy rates unchanged in the review next week, given the inflation
ep-12
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
S
Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17
May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 trajectory is expected to move higher and today’s data shows some recovery in
growth is underway.
Note: GDP = Σ GVA at basic prices + Product taxes -
Product subsidies Summary of QE Sep GDP and outlook for FY19
Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, November 2017
Quarterly real GDP (at market prices) grew by % YoY in QE Sep-17 vs.
consensus and our expectations of %YoY: pares with %YoY