麦格理-印度-宏观经济-宏观数据全面增长——内需保持健康.pdf

INDIA India Economics
Key data releases (Jan-18 vs Dec-17) Macro data round-up – domestic
demand remains healthy
In this monthly publication we endeavour to provide a one-stop shop for all key
macro data releases in the month, along with a chart pack of key macro
indicators to track.
Growth indicators: Cyclical recovery in domestic demand
. Domestic demand indicators fared better than external demand: High
frequency domestic demand indicators continue to show healthy growth in the
last three months suggesting that growth recovery is gathering momentum.
Source: CEIC, GoI, Macquarie Research, February 2018  Consumption indicators such as car sales, petrol consumption, retail loan
*IP current month is Dec-17 and previous is Nov-17 growth and air passenger traffic accelerated in Jan
#CAD current is for QE Sep-17, previous is QE Jun-17
 Manufacturing indicators remained robust – IP growth for Dec was above
expectations. PMI manufacturing for Jan remained above 50 for the sixth
consecutive months, but it moderated from the five-year high reached in
Dec. Cement production growth remained in double digits for the second
consecutive month. mercial vehicle sales growth accelerated to
the highest since Mar-2010.
 Services indicators too improved – PMI services expanded in Jan, while
other indicators such as rail and sea port cargo continued to improve.
. Export growth slows in Jan: Export growth slipped to single digits in Jan,
growing by % YoY (vs. % YoY in Dec). Lacklustre non \-commodity
export growth mainly caused the slowdown in growth – with segments such
as gems & jewellery, textiles, electronic goods contributing to the slowdown.
Macro stability: Widening at the margin
. Trade deficit widens to a 56-month high: The trade deficit widened to
US$ (% of GDP annualised) in Jan from US$ (% of GDP
annualised) in Dec as imports rose faster than exports. The higher than expected