麦格理-马来西亚-宏观策略-马来西亚2017年q3策略结果要点：喜忧参半.pdf

MALAYSIA Malaysia Strategy
3Q17 results: by sector round-up
Sectors Beat In-line Miss 3Q17 results wrap: mixed picture
Banks/Financials 2 5 0
Telcos 1 3 1 Conclusion
Utilities 0 3 0
Oil & Gas 2 0 1 . Against the backdrop of strong 3Q GDP growth (+%, the fastest pace since
Plantation 2 0 2
Gloves 1 1 0 2Q14) and firming underlying consumption-supportive macro indicators such
Consumer 1 1 1 as accelerating real wage growth and falling household debt (refer to “3Q17
Transportation 2 2 2
Construction 1 1 3 GDP stats: key read-throughs” report), 3Q corporate reporting for the mainly
Property / REITs 2 0 4 domestic demand-oriented market remained stubbornly mixed. The number of
Healthcare 0 0 panies under coverage beating expectations rose for a second quarter in
Media 0 0 1
Technology & IT 1 1 0 a row, albeit marginally, to 15 (2Q: 8), with favoured sectors . financials,
Gaming 0 0 1 small-mid construction, transport/logistics and tech/exporters continuing to
Insurance 0 0 1
Total 15 17 19 show the most convincing earnings delivery. Key earnings, rating adjustments
Source: Macquarie Research, December 2017 post-3Q reporting to flag are i) Gamuda – downgraded to non-consensus UP
(from OP); ii) HLBK – forecast, TP lifted; reiterate OP; iii) MAHB – raised to
Malaysia: earnings growth by sector Neutral (from UP); and iv) Petronas Gas – raised to Neutral (from UP).
Net profit growth
(mkt cap weighted average) Impact
2016A 2017E 2018E
Banks / Financials 3% 9% 9% . Consensus edges higher: following strong 3Q GDP print and a sustained
Telcos -16% 8% 5% improvement in earnings drivers such as oil price (sustaining well above fiscal
Utilities 18% 0% -1%
Oil & Gas 2% 22% -6% guidance of USD52/bbl) and Ringgit (strengthening), albeit with some offset re
Plantation 15% 17% 14% decelerating system loan growth (Oct: % YoY, weakest YTD), consensus
Gloves 20% 22% 11%
Consumer 1% -14% -5% 2017 and 2018 K