麦格理-马来西亚-宏观策略-马来西亚投资策略.pdf

MALAYSIA Malaysia Strategy
MGS bond yield vs. MGS foreign Haven appeal intact
holding
Conclusion
55% % . Ringgit assets were relatively resilient amidst previous week’s global market
50% %
45% volatility, with the benchmark 10yr MGS yield barely budging while the KLSE
%
40% tangibly outperformed regional peers. With Bank Negara appearing to have
%
35% reverted to neutral mode post-25th Jan rate hike and system liquidity ample,
30% %
domestic cost of money remains stable and underlying macro . robust GDP
l-15 l-16 l-17
t-17
n-15 n-16 n-17
ct-15 ct-16
pr-15 pr-16 pr-17
Ju Ju Ju growth, firmer Ringgit, supportive of financial assets reflation. Market dips in
O O Oc
A A A
Ja Ja Ja
reaction to offshore volatility are opportunities to pick up banks (CIMB, HLBK,
Foreign ownership of MGS (%)
RHB), selective GLCs (Tenaga, Telekom), construction (AQRS, Econpile),
MGS 10Y yield (RHS) exporters (Inari, Top Glove; 2H18 Ringgit trend to be supportive) as well as
Source: BNM, Macquarie Research, February 2018 AirAsia, Time , Bursa (M); sell into strength re Gamuda, DiGi, PETD.
Impact
USDMYR vs. Brent oil price
. Yields – yielding no ground: MGS (Malaysian Government Security) yields
have traded in a tight 6bps range YTD, and at %, are well below a 12mth
US$/bbl
80 high of % (fig 1). Narrowed lo