麦格理-马来西亚-宏观经济-马来西亚策略：3季度gdp核心数据解读.pdf

MALAYSIA Malaysia Strategy
MGS bond yield vs MSG foreign holding
3Q17 GDP stats: key read-throughs
55% % Conclusion
50% %
45%
% .
40% Consensus-beating 3Q17 GDP growth (+% YoY) was punctuated by many
35% % positive data points, in particular accelerating real wage growth, expanding
30% % current account surplus and capped debt ratios. Policy-wise, higher oil prices
l-17
t-15 t-16
n-15 n-16 n-17
ul-15 ul-16
ct-17
pr-16
pr-15 pr-17 are providing fiscal room to manoeuver even as ary policy adopts a
J J Ju
Oc Oc O
A A A
Ja Ja Ja tightening bias, though rate hikes are only expected post-elections (GE14;
Foreign ownership of MGS (%) likely 2Q18). With the Ringgit on a fundamentally firmer footing and the KLCI
MGS 10Y yield (RHS) 10% off its year high (9% TSR vs. 12mth bottom-up 1,822 KLCI target), still-
elusive corporate earnings momentum is key to market recovery. Favoured
Source: Bloomberg, BNM, Macquarie Research,
November 2017 sectors are banks, construction and logistics - whilst GLC Reform remains a
structural, over-arching theme, renewed traction is only likely post-GE14. Big-
USDMYR vs. Brent oil prices cap picks are Tenaga, Sime, CIMB, Telekom, Hartalega, AirAsia and POS(M).
Impact
US$/bbl
70
. 3Q17 macro stats impress: Malaysia’s 3Q GDP growth of % (consensus
60
50 expectation: %) was the fastest pace since 2Q14, underpinned by strength
40 in private consumption, net exports and a boost from the public sector (Fig 2).

30 The 3Q fiscal balance surprised positively with overall balance surplus (Fig 4),
20 while double-digit export growth saw current account (CA) surplus expanding
to % of GNI (Fig 12; 2Q: %), continuing its rebound from 1Q’s % low.
n-15
Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17
Ja
Jan-16 Jan-17
Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sep-15 Nov-15 Sep-16 Nov-16 Sep-17 Nov-17
May-15 May-16 May-17 . Policy reversals in progress: As oil prices