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麦格理-马来西亚-宏观策略-马来西亚策略:鼷鹿已走.pdf


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麦格理-马来西亚-宏观策略-马来西亚策略:鼷鹿已走.pdf
文档介绍:
MALAYSIA Malaysia strategy
MGS bond yield vs. MGS foreign
holding This mouse deer has moves
Conclusion
55% 5.0% .
50% 4.5% A Malay proverb goes that when two elephants fight, the mouse deer in
45%
4.0% between is trampled to death. As an economy-centric Great Game between
40%
35% 3.5% the US and China looks to be gaining momentum, the Malaysian mouse deer
30% 3.0% is potentially a more shrewd opportunist than a hapless victim. While
conclusive trade es remain uncertain, Malaysia’s relatively
n-15
Jul-15
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Apr-15
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Ja
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Jan-18 unprovocative broader current account dynamics mitigate risk of attracting
Foreign ownership of MGS (%) direct US protectionist ire. Immediate benefits may flow from a potential
MGS 10Y yield (RHS) scaling back of China’s US Treasury purchases and high oil prices. The
KLCI’s defensive appeal remains evident (fig 7) as blue chips are well
Source: BNM, Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, March supported; bargain hunting should focus on the sold-down mid-cap space i.e.
2018
Inari, AirAsia, Time, Top Glove, Econpile.
USDMYR vs. Brent oil price Impact
. Trade – the bigger picture: trade is a major economic driver for Malaysia,
US$/bbl
4.50 80 with total export value equivalent to 71% of nominal GDP - however, per fig 1,
70 destinatio
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  • 时间2018-04-02