麦格理-马来西亚-宏观策略-马来西亚策略：鼷鹿已走.pdf

MALAYSIA Malaysia strategy
MGS bond yield vs. MGS foreign
holding This mouse deer has moves
Conclusion
55% % .
50% % A Malay proverb goes that when two elephants fight, the mouse deer in
45%
% between is trampled to death. As an economy-centric Great Game between
40%
35% % the US and China looks to be gaining momentum, the Malaysian mouse deer
30% % is potentially a more shrewd opportunist than a hapless victim. While
conclusive trade es remain uncertain, Malaysia’s relatively
n-15
Jul-15
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Jul-17
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Ja
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18 unprovocative broader current account dynamics mitigate risk of attracting
Foreign ownership of MGS (%) direct US protectionist ire. Immediate benefits may flow from a potential
MGS 10Y yield (RHS) scaling back of China’s US Treasury purchases and high oil prices. The
KLCI’s defensive appeal remains evident (fig 7) as blue chips are well
Source: BNM, Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, March supported; bargain hunting should focus on the sold-down mid-cap space .
2018
Inari, AirAsia, Time, Top Glove, Econpile.
USDMYR vs. Brent oil price Impact
. Trade – the bigger picture: trade is a major economic driver for Malaysia,
US$/bbl
80 with total export value equivalent to 71% of nominal GDP - however, per fig 1,
70 destinatio