From Catch-Up to Frontier-Innovation Growth：从赶上前沿创新成长.ppt

From Catch-Up to Frontier-Innovation Growth
Philippe Aghion
Questions
How can China avoid the middle e trap and eed in transition from “catch-up economy” to “frontier innovator”?
Does this also require institutional change, not just policy change?
Rethinking the role and size of the state?
Schumpeterian Paradigm
Long-run growth is driven by (frontier) innovations
Innovations result from entrepreneurial investments (R&D…) which are themselves motivated by the prospect of innovation rents
Policy of growth
Creative destruction: new innovations make old technologies e obsolete
Political economy of growth
Schumpeterian Paradigm
A first prediction of the paradigm is that (frontier) innovation requires turnover, reallocation and exit!
A second prediction is petition enhances frontier innovation and thereby growth
A third prediction is that growth-enhancing policies depend upon stage of development
Frontier innovation vs catch up growth
Catch up growth in China
Partial market reforms and petition between provincial leaders
Reallocation from agriculture to industry and from SOEs to (credit-constrained) new TVEs and private enterprises (Song-Storesletten-Zilibotti)
Technological catch-up taking advantage of FDI
From catch-up growth to innovation-based growth in China
More reallocation-based growth can be achieved from liberalizing labor flows from rural to urban areas and from developing financial sector
From catch-up growth to innovation-based growth in China
Yet, several reasons for expecting a slowdown:
Gains from reallocating resources from agriculture to industry and from absorption of imported technologies have exhausting effects
Wage increases will parative advantage of China in what it currently exports
Pillars of an innovation-based economy
First pillar: Competition
Competition/entry is more growth-enhancing for countries or sectors that are closer to technological petition/entry is more growth enhancing in countries or states with less regulate