中国商用车市场分析.ppt

mercial Vehicle Market Overview
Discussion Paper –
Beijing, February 7, 2007
9/February/2007
Strategy & Corporate Development
Heavy duty truck and light truck outperformed other segments during last 6 years
Chinese truck market, 2000-2010E, [‘000 units]
Source: China Automobile Yearbook 2006, China Auto Association, VGC analysis
Mini1)
Light1)
Medium1)
Heavy duty1)
24%
3%
16%
13%
CAGR (’00-’06)
CAGR (’06-’10E)
21%
1%
10%
4%
1,098
1,211
1,526
1,508
1,751
2,583
819
775
CAGR=%
GTW
GTW 6t
GTW 14t
Heavy Duty Truck
Medium Truck
Light Truck
Mini Truck
1) Definition in China
%
2
Heavy duty truck will see a rebound in the next years, after a sudden slump caused by government austerity measures
Heavy duty truck segment
Source: China Automobile Yearbook 2006, China Auto Association
Sales of HDT (Heavy duty trucks) [‘000 units]
Remarks
CAGR=3%
CAGR=30%
1999-2004: fast growing
Proactive fiscal and ary policies started in 1999
OEMs greatly improved the technology and capacity
2005: sudden slump
Government rigid measures to cool down economy
panies’ over-investment in fleet in 2004
2006 afterwards: rebound
Heavy fixed asset investment of 11th “5 plan”
Government’s “anti-overloading”
2 trillion RMB new investment on 85,000 km expressway building
Polarization (heavy or light) accelerates
3
15-20%
33%
Specialty (Chassis)1)
5%
8%
Flat-bed Truck
10-15%
33%
Tipper
15-20%
26%
Tractor
CAGR 2003-2010
2010 Estimated Market Share
Within HDT segment, specialty vehicles and tractors are most attractive
2010 Market Share
2010 Market Volume
CAGR of 2003-2010
30%
0%
10%
40%
Flat-bed
Tractor
5%
10%
15%
20%
Tippers
1)Mainly include cargo, concrete mixer, bulk cement tank, fire-fighting, refuse collector, etc.
Specialty Vehicle
4
Price wise, medium/upper medium segment provides better entry opportunity
Market Share
Price Range [RMB ‘000]
The dominant platform Steyr seems out of date for mid-end petitio