基于gis山东省台风灾害评估——1985-2010年.docx

基于 GIS 的山东省台风灾害评估——1985-2010 年
摘 要
山东省是台风灾害的高发区,有史以来由台风带来的影响颇为严重,面临较大的台风灾害威胁。本文基于对 1985-2010 年间的多种历史资料和数据以及风暴潮灾害模拟结果的分析对山东省成灾台风进行了灾害评估。为减少不同时期社会经济发展水平对灾害损失评估结果的影响,本文采用标准化方法分析评估了各年的灾害损失。采用模糊数学的方法建立了综合定量指标,利用所建立的指标综合地考察了台风灾害的影响。
风暴潮是台风灾害的主要致灾因子之一,本文利用 ADCIRC 海洋模型对山东省台风风暴潮进行了数值模拟。通过对风暴潮灾害成灾机制、灾害时空分布特征、风暴潮过程与台风路径的关系进行分析发现,山东省台风风暴潮灾害与台风强度、路径、受灾地区地形地貌有关,呈现显著的区域差异。
本文利用 GIS 作为技术平台建立了山东省台风灾害评价系统,将历年台风灾情与人文、社会、地理要素相结合,基于地理信息系统进行了灾害综合评估。评估结果表明,标准化的台风灾害损失情况呈逐年下降趋势,山东省台风灾害带来的综合影响逐年降低,并呈现地域差异,具有明显的时空分布特征。利用地理信息系统平台进行了各致灾因子作用的综合分析,结果表明,台风各致灾因子往往不是单独出现的,当多种致灾因子迭加时会带来较为严重的影响,造成重大经济损失和人员伤亡。
本文重视并强调台风灾害多方面、各因子的综合影响,通过对 1985-2010 年期间山东省成灾台风的研究,将灾害损失、灾害机制、社会环境因子的影响、区域年代际差异等要素综合分析,分析了山东台风灾害的演变规律和灾害社会影响要素。本文研究结果可望为山东省沿海地区台风灾害的防灾减灾工作提供参考。
关键词: 台风灾害评估标准化方法风暴潮山东省地理信息系统
Typhoon Disaster Assessment in Shandong Province during 1985—2010 Based on GIS
Abstract
Typhoon is a kind of natural disasters which occurs frequently in Shandong Province and the damage induced by typhoon is significant. In the present paper, the risk assessment of disasters induced by typhoons in Shandong Province has been carried out on the basis of the analyses to the historical data during 1985-2010. In order to reduce the impact of the social and economical development status on the evaluation results in various periods, the normalized evaluation method were used to analyze the annual typhoon-induced damage in the concerned period. The prehensive index is proposed with fuzzy mathematics, and the effect of typhoon- induced disasters is systematically investigated with the proposed index.
Storm surge is one of the most impotent hazard factor of the disaster induced by typhoon. ADCIRC ocean model is used to numerical storm surge simulation in this paper. The simulation results indicate that the storm surge induced by typhoon is relative to the intensity category, tracks of typhoons and the geography features of the coastal region and present a significant regional differences.
In order bine the damage induced by