国际金价波动影响因素及金价走势的分析.docx

摘要
因黄金既可以作为商品又可以作为投资工具这种特殊性,自国际黄金市场开
放可以公开交易之后三十几年来,国际金价一直受到黄金使用者和投资者的关
注。从2005年下半年开始到2007年底,国际金价经历了连续三年的高增长率,金
价的决定及金价波动的影响因素等相关问题更加成为黄金生产和使用企业、国际
投资者关注的焦点。
国外对于国际金价的研究早已开始,很多学者也得出了一些具有实证意义的
研究结论。我国现在对于国际金价的学术研究还处于初步阶段,大多停留在对黄
金供求和金价影响因素的定性分析上,定量的研究还很匮乏。
在总结前人的研究成果上,本人采用定量分析和定性分析相结合的方法。首
先对国际黄金市场开放至今三十多年的国际金价走势进行了回顾和原因分析;接
着对直接决定黄金价格的供求作了分析,并指出了黄金由于其双重属性而产生的
供求上的特殊性—由商品性供求和投资性供求共同决定;进而对通过影响黄金的
供求间接影响黄金价格的主要因素进行了分析并用多元线性回归的方法作了实
证研究,结论认为影响黄金价格波动的因素主要有:股价指数、通货膨胀率、汇
率、利率等;最后,结合研究结果对国际金价未来几年的走势进行了预测分析,
认为未来几年内国际金价仍将维持在高位。
关键词:国际金价,金价走势,影响因素,多元回归
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Abstract
Gold is a special thing, because it can be regarded as modity also can be
regarded as an investment instrument. Its characteristic made its price concerned by
the users and investors all the time after international gold market was opened. From
the year 2005 to 2007, the international price of gold experienced high growth rate by
3 years. So, many gold maker and gold user and international investors focus on the
price concerned things again, such as the determination of gold price, the influential
factor of price and so on.
Scholars in western countries started to do researches on international gold price
by many years ago. And up to now, they already have some achievements of positive
meanings. However, compared with the abundant research achievements abroad,
researches on this issue in China are still quite few and limited to qualitative analysis.
On the base of empirical researches, this paper attempts to analyze the
international gold price problem by positive bine with qualitative analysis.
First, analyze the trend of international gold price over past 36 years and give reasons
for it. Second, analyze ponents of the supply and demand of gold and point out
the specialty of them. Third, analyze the influential factors of gold price fluctuation by
qualitative research then demonstrate the conclusion by multi-variable regression.
Then we get a conclusion, that is, main influentia