trading speculation.doc

Don’t Make This Dangerous Resource Mistake 
Investors who are looking to the XNG Natural Gas Index to tell them the future of natural gas prices could be making a costly mistake.
XNG, which tracks large panies in the US natural gas industry, has been heading up for 12 months, in the exact opposite direction as UNG, the high-profile ETF that tracks the price of natural gas. It has been going down for 12 months and set a new 52-week low late last week.
How can two related natural gas charts go in opposite directions for so long? Which one should investors look to try and make money?
UNG is supposed to track the natural modity price in the US, based on the near-month contract on the Henry Hub in Louisiana.
(There are several natural gas “hubs” where natural gas prices are quoted around the US, but the Henry Hub is what most media quote, and while there used to be a big difference between the regional hubs, increased pipeline capacity around the US has lowered those differences a lot.)
XNG measures the stock performance of a basket of large panies in the natural gas industry, but they are not all producers. Some are pipeline, transportation, and panies.
Look at the two charts—which at first blush I would expect to mirror each other— of the modity and the equities that should track modity:
Click to Enlarge
Click to Enlarge
So what gives with that? Does one of these charts