2014铁矿石价格预测.docx

2014铁矿石价格预测
下图为2014年1月17日铁矿石价格表(表格为下图的翻译):
价格
收盘价
变动
百分比
铁矿石1年掉期



铁矿石现货价格



螺纹钢均价



大商所期货价格



1年铁矿石掉期价格已经破位,但从技术上看并不是非常看空。与此同时,现货价格已经跌破131美元的支撑位,在跌至110美元之前并无明显支撑。下图:铁矿石1年掉期
近期,大商所6个月后交割的合约(1307合约)开始下滑,当前其价格在117美元附近,这与OREX 交易所的112美元不一样。
螺纹钢价格也在下滑,在产能严重过剩背景下,螺纹钢价格深陷倒挂境地。(下图:螺纹钢均价)
Let’s get straight to it. Iron ore is in trouble again. The question is how much trouble? Are we seeing the leading edge of the big price falls long expected on the great supply deluge? Or are we seeing just another Chinese inventory cycle?
现在说说正题:.铁矿石再次面临困境问题是这回又有多严峻呢? 在此,我们是该看到的供应严重过剩下的价格大跳水带来的好处呢,还是另一个中国的库存周期?
My answer is both. The remarkable story of last year’s iron ore strength around an average of $130 was impressive. But one should always recall the long term. Reversing the perspective, despite Chinese steel production jumping a spectacular 9% last year, iron ore is still down $50 from its 2011 highs. This says to me that we are long passed the leading edge of the structural iron ore correction. Cyclical forces look increasingly high risk as well.
我的回答的两者都应看到。去年铁矿石均价保持在130美元是个很了不得的事情,但人们应该从长远来看。尽管中国2013钢材产量增幅高达9%,与我之前看法相反的是,铁矿石价格从2011年高点下滑了50美元。这告诉我,经济结构调整予以铁矿石的美好时代已不复存在,经济的周期性成为了巨大风险。
Entering 2014, on the structural front, there are two major facts to consider. The first is Chinese steel demand. As diagnosed through the second half of last year, t