基于多agent仿真的在线口碑传播网络形成机制分析.docx

浙江大学硕士学位论文 摘要
摘 要
随着以互联网为代表的信息技术的应用和普及,口碑信息通过在线方式开始以惊人的速度扩散。与大众传媒或传统市场营销活动相比,口碑传播具有更高的影响力和说服力(Bickart&Schindler,2001),因此,在线口碑已经引起越来越多学者、企业的关注和研究。然而,已有的对在线12碑的研究主要侧重于在线口碑与消费者行为关系层面,而对在线口碑传播网络的形成机制的研究比较缺乏。
本文以复杂网络为视角,将个体、论坛作为在线口碑传播的两类参与主体, 区分了个体传播概率和激活概率。在对在线12碑的传播机制进行了详细描述的基础上,建立了在线12碑传播的多Agent模型,Logo仿真平台模拟了不
同情况下在线口碑传播网络的形成过程。通过对仿真结果的分析,本研究发现:
(1)个体激活概率比传播概率对在线口碑传播的规模和效率的影响更大; (2)与个体相比,论坛传播对于在线口碑传播的规模和效率的影响更大; (3)网络拓扑结构和统计特征与在线口碑传播的规模和效率显著相关。本研究的理论意义在于丰富了在线口碑传播网络的研究方法,为在线口碑传
播的研究提供了一种全新的思路和工具;实践意义在于识别了在线口碑的传播机制和网络中的关键传播者,并为企业进行在线口碑营销提供了具体的建议。
关键词:在线口碑;传播机制;传播网络;多Agent仿真
III
浙江大学硕士学位论文 Abstract
Abstract
Along with the the development of ,information through online word of mouth began to spread of munication has higher influence and persuasive power on consumer,therefore,online word of mouth has attracted more and more research of academics and online word of mouth research mainly focuses on word of mouth’S impact on consumer behavior,but the research of online word of work’S formation mechanism is still in the
blank.
Therefore,based work perspective,this study set two types of Agent and distinguished activation probability from spread paper described the spread mechanism of online word of up a Multi—Agent model of online word of mouth’S spreading,and used Logo simulation platform to simulate the online word of mouth’S spreading in different analyzing
the simulation results,our study found that:
(1)Activation probability’S influence on spread scale and efficiency of online
word of mouth is larger than spread probability’S.
(2)Forum spread’S influence on spread scale and efficiency of online word of
mouth is larger than person’S.
(work topology and demographic is significantly correlated讪th spread scale and efficiency of online word of mouth.
111e theoretical contribution of this study is to enrich the research of online word of work and provide a new idea and tool for further