全球不平衡及其中国的对策余永定,2007年.ppt

全球不平衡及其中国的对策
余永定
2007年3月8日,研究生院,Beijing
全球不平衡
Source: FT Oct 18 2006
World Bank prediction , October 2006
美国经常项目逆差和净外债-GDP比
美国经常项目逆差: $8690亿美元
美国经常项目逆差-GDP比: 7%
墨西哥:%
泰国:>%
美国净外债-GDP比: 30%
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced on March 14 2006
What will be the direction?
Check niip figure
全球不平衡的可持续性
美国的净外债-GDP比是否会趋于某一稳定值?否则,债务国(美国)最终将因为无法还本、付息而陷于破产。
例如,如美国的外债-GDP比超过200%,美国是否还有能力把GDP中的一部分用于还本付息?如果可以,比例超过500%时呢?
在趋于某一可接受稳定值的过程中,外国是否会继续为美国的经常项目逆差融资。
换言之,美元资产风险的提高,顺差国是否愿意继续保持对美国的经常项目顺差?
美国国际收支不平衡的变动历史
Debt balance/GDP
Current account deficit/GDP
80年代初开始,逐步增加,最近加速增加。粉线是否回无限向右上访延伸?趋势线的外推是不够的。
status quo: NIIP ratio 25 percent of GDP, current account deficit to percent of GDP
account status quo: the current account deficit at about 5 percent of GDP
the NIIP would stabilize at 83 percent of GDP. In other words we have a long way to go.
view: 4 percent of GDP, which would imply a NIIP of 67 percent.
wealth view: a current account deficit narrowing to about 3 percent of GDP and an NIIP at about 50 percent of GDP. 5. Issing view: the US current account deficit has to shrink to 2 percent of GDP, implying an NIIP of 33 percent. 6. Zero trade deficit: The logic of the primary-deficit/-surplus approach implies that the United States will eventually have to reduce its deficit on goods and services to zero. Net lending to the United States would be limited to the amount sufficient to e payments (currently approximately zero) transfer payments (currently approximately half a percent of GDP). With a current account deficit percent of GDP, the implied NIIP would shrink to 8 percent of GDP.
美国经济学家对美国净外债-GDP比极限值的估算
贸易顺差国是否会继续为美国逆差融资?
日本等发达国家
东亚新兴工业化经济(excluding Japan and China)
Before and after the Asian Financial Crisis
Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia (figs.)
石油输出国
Price changes
Safe heaven
中国
日本经常顺差会减少吗?