MERCER为美国保险业协会做的绝密HR分析报告.ppt

Rich Bailey FSA, MAAA, FCA
Richmond, VA
Is it Time for Employers to Move Away From the Traditional Ways of Providing Employee Benefits?
November 3, 2004
1
Agenda
The Environment
The Catch-22
Paths Away from Traditional Delivery: Two Camps
Opportunities Along Path 2
The Answer
Additional Topics
2
Agenda
The Environment
Medical Trends
Legislation
Marketplace Changes
Population Demographics
Employer Outlook
The Catch-22
Paths Away from Traditional Delivery: Two Camps
Opportunities Along Path 2
The Answer
Additional Topics
3
Double-Digit Increase for Second Year in a RowPer employee costs in excess of $5,600 per year
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+%
+%
+%
+%
+%
Source: 2002 Mercer/Foster Higgins National Survey of Employer-sponsored Health Plans
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Annual CPI Trend . health care costs rise, despite continuing economic recession
The gap between CPI-U and medical ponent is increasing
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Comparison of Overall Growth Cumulative medical care CPI 89% greater than overall CPI since 1967
Data based on January 1 CPI values
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Employers’ Cost Increases Out-Pace Other Indicators Largest increase since 1990 (all employers)
Includes medical, dental and pharmacy
Source: 2002 Mercer/Foster Higgins National Survey of Employer-sponsored Health Plans
Results for Employers with 500 or more lives
%
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%
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1987
1988
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Employers
CPI-Medical
CPI-All Items
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Aggregate Health Care Spending (1980 – 2010) Government portion of payments increasing; total projected to be over $2 trillion by 2009
Source: CMS
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Medical Trends
Pop Quiz
How many years will it take gross medical costs to double, assuming no specific employer interventions or national health care?
10 or more
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8
7
6
5 or fewer
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Medical T