不确定条件下企业研发投资决策研究.doc

不确定条件下企业研发投资决策研究.doc西南交通大学
硕士学位论文
不确定条件下企业研发投资决策研究
姓名:李世军
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:技术经济及管理
导教师:王明亮
20060501
Abstract
Increase the amount of R&D investment is the necessity choice for our country if we want to build an innovative national, and as a principal part of R&D investment, our corporation have to estimate the R&D project carefully.
As a strategic investment project of long time and foundation, it' s necessary for us to understand the theory and mode of R&D. At the same time, we know that the R&D project is much uncertainty, and the conventional estimate way of project is not fit to estimate it' s value, and we can not believe the way of qualitative analysis, so it' s equal to adopt the real option to estimate the R&D investment project, because it can estimate the value of uncertainty and selectivity.
In this text, at first I summarize the basal theory and mode of R&D, and give a suggestion of R&D mode for our corporation. Base our head corporation of industry, I analyze the actuality of R&D investment and the effect of increase output or promote continuance development after we have payout in R&D. As the principal part of this text, after summarize the estimate way of project investment decision-making, it analyze the applicability of real option to R&D investment, then analyze the estimate step and kind of real option. After those, I select the real option way to study as the principal way of this text, and base some cases, I give a balance analysis of realistic rationality for real option and conventional way* As the last part of this text, I summarize the text and indicate some deficiency and improve measure.
As a applied research, this text analyze the basal theory 、 mode and estimate way of R&D investment decision-making, I expect to bring some promotion for our corporation in rational invest decision-making.
Key words: Uncertain condition, corporation, selectivity. Computer simulation, R&D investment. Real option
西南交通大学硕士研究生学位论文 第1页
第1章绪论

2003年,我国人均GDP突破1000