2030年美国电动车市场预测.pdf

Electric Vehicles in the United States
A New Model with Forecasts to 2030

Center for Entrepreneurship & Technology (CET)
Technical Brief
Number:
Revision Date: August 24, 2009
Thomas A. Becker (******@),
Ikhlaq Sidhu (PI), Burghardt Tenderich



Center for Entrepreneurship & Technology

Contents

Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1
Part 1: Modeling Consumer Adoption ..................................................................................... 2
1. Network Externalities and parison of Costs................................................................. 3
. Network Operators and Switchable Batteries .......................................................... 3
. Economic Model ...................................................................................................... 5
. bustion Car Costs ............................................................................... 5
. Electric Car Costs.................................................................................................... 7
2. Model of Adoption ................................................................................................................11
. Regional Deployment and Fleet Mix ......................................................................13
Part 2: Macroeconomic Impacts ........................................................................................... 15
1. Trade Balance .......................................................................................................................16
2. Capital Expenditures ............................................................................................................19
3. Employment ...................................................................................