多时段甄选的演进机制及竞争效率.doc

第二届“中国制度经济学理论研讨会”征文稿
多时段甄选的演进机制及竞争效率
——以中国高等教育制度变迁为例
陈宇峰贾生华
(浙江大学管理学院,浙江杭州,310027)
内容摘要:传统甄选理论的核心是以预测因子与未来工作绩效之间的严格正相关假设为前提的,但这一核心已不断地受到目前实践的强有力挑战。面临挑战的甄选理论如何抓住机遇,解析这一理论核心的内在缺陷,已成为现代人事心理学的一大前沿领域。本文以此为目的,提出具有自适应能力的“多时段甄选”竞争机制。对中国高等教育制度变迁中演进机制的实证研究发现,两时段甄选机制的竞争激励不但提高学生的普遍努力程度,挖掘甄选者的潜在能力以达到能力的完全显示,而且也使预测因子与未来工作绩效弱相关的关系椭圆向右上方移动,并变得相当狭短。
关键词:多时段甄选中国高等教育改革演进机制竞争效率
Evolutional Mechanism petitive Efficiency in Multi-Phase Selection
Chen Yu-feng Jia Sheng-hua
Abstract The tradional core of Selection Theory is based on the hypothesis of strict positive relevance, which is between the forecasting factor and future performance. However, it has been challenged continuously and strongly by the selection practices now. And the research on its inherent defects has been as the forward fields of modern personnel psychology. This paper proposes to put forward petitive efficiency in multi-phase selection with self-adaptability. During the research of institutional change of Chinese higher education, two-phase selection mechanism has revealed that, the petition can not only make the selected students take great effort to display all of their latency potentials, but also make the ellipse, which indicates the inferior relation of forecasting factor and future performance, move to up-right and e very narrow and short.
Key Words Multi-Phase Selection Reformation of Chinese higher education Evolutional petitive Efficiency
一、导论
传统甄选决策模型总是在事先假定预测因子值与未来工作绩效之间存在严格正相关关系的前提下进行(Gatewood&Field,1987)。尽管他们也承认这中间还有信度、效度等诸多不可忽略的干扰因素会产生偏差,但这些还不足以会影响到整个理论体系的逻辑建构和纵深发展。伯德利(Boudreau . ,1987)、诺依(Noe R. A. ,2000)等人的最新研究却表明,预测因子值与未来工作绩效之间的这种相关关系并非如他们所武断假定的那般严格,而是呈弱相关关系。可以这么说,这些对于传统人事决策的理论根基是一种全新
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图1 预测因子值(X)与未来工作绩效(Y)之间弱相关的椭圆关系图



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而具有摧毁性的实践挑战:不仅需要全面反思以往的传统甄选理论,而且面对挑战的现代人事甄选理论同样要借此机遇赢得横向拓展的突破。事实上,早在50年前的人事心理学家们就已经注意到这一问题的存在可能。不过,当时并没有意识到由此会带来甄选理论如此这般的严峻性。他们认为,如果相关假设能够在更为宽泛的要求下得到肯定,那么在此基础上发展的传统人事甄选理论也会建立其严格的逻辑和推理构架①这一方面的主要研究主要集中在人事心理学的研究领域,主要论文有: Brogde