基于广义供求视角的国际粮食价格波动影响因素分析——以小麦为例.docx

Contents
1 Introduction ‘l
Research background and significance · · ’l
review ····- · --···-··· 一1
Markofinternationalfood grainPrice 1
Track of international food grain price volatility 2
Qualitative analysis of international food grain price volatility 。4
Quantitative analysis of international food grain price volatility 9
Countermeasure - .-10 ment ·- -·-- t-- ·t··--一11 Research methods&framework 一12
Researchmethods · ··- 12
Research framework ‘12
- 一12 2 The Overview and features of International food grain prices volatility—— takewheat as example ·15
Historical volatility Track · 15
ne analysis ofcyclical fluctuations · ·。’16
2- Long-term Irend analysis’ 17
ponentAnalysis -‘18
Chapter summary ’ · 20
3 Theory analysis of international food grain price volatility factors ’21
TheoreticalBasis 一2l
Marx’Stheoryofvalue ‘21
Generalized theory ofsupply&demand based on Marx’S value theory22 Factors analysis of Fluctuations intemational food grain price volatility 3 1 Fundamentals of Supply&demand一一Phy’sical Level ’3 1
Non-fundamental supply&demand——Ⅵ咖al Level 43
4 Empirical Analysis of international food grain price volatility 48
F怂硝R model.· ·- 一48
·· -· ·49
Variable settings anddataprocessing 49
EmpiricalAnalysis- -· ····· ‘51
III
万方数据
Empirical Analysis based on Generalized Theory of supply&demand (January 1990一June2015) ‘56
Analysis of Generalized Theory of supply and demand (January 1990-December2005) 63
Analysis of Generalized Theory of supply&demand(January
2015) · ··· · · · 68
Chapter summary ·‘73
5 Conelusions and Countermeasure 一75
Mainconclusion · ··75
Countermeasure ·75
domestic food grain production and protect domestic basic
supply ·_76
Strengthen international c