荷兰银行05年5月关于人民币升值的研究报告.pdf

Monday 9 May 2005
China Lookout - Strategy

Screening off the noise from renminbi
Our sensitivity analysis shows a 10% renminbi appreciation could
erode the FY05F EPS of our China universe by %. We believe any
positive liquidity effect from such appreciation is unlikely to allay
market concerns about deteriorating corporate earnings for FY05F.
Top winners and losers of renminbi appreciation
China
Top winners Top losers
Stock Impact of 1% Stock Impact of 1%
Company code RMB pany Code RMB appreciation
China model portfolio
China Southern % Shenzhen Dev Bank -%
China Eastern % Yizheng Chemical -% Rec Target
Sinopec % China Minsheng Bank -% China Life Buy HK$
Zhenhai Refining % COSL -% China Merchants Add HK$
Tsingtao Brewery % Huaxia Bank -% China Resources Add HK$
Tingyi % CSCL -% China Shipping Add HK$
Beijing Datang % Singamas Container -% China Buy HK$
CNAC % PetroChina -% CNOOC Buy HK$
Huadian Power % Pudong Dev Bank -% Jiangsu Exp Add HK$
China Resources % Sinotrans -% Kingway Brewery Buy HK$
Lianhua Supermarket Buy HK$
Source: ABN AMRO estimates PetroChina Buy HK$
Negative EPS impact on basis, positive for liquidity flows Singamas Container Buy HK$
Our sensitivity analysis shows a 10% appreciation in the renminbi is likely to erode Source: ABN AMRO
the FY05F EPS of our China universe by %, with EPS accretion for the airlines and HSCEI
power stocks more than offset by earnings declines for the oil and banking counters.
But the potential positive valuation impact on the discounted renminbi cash flows of
I
most panies should bode well for liquidity flows to the China markets.

Top winners of renminbi appreciation are