摩根斯坦利对蒙牛的分析报告.pdf

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Equity Research
Asia/Pacific
China China Mengniu Dairy
Consumer : Food, Bev. & o Reuters: Bloomberg: 2319 HK
Angela Moh Analysis of Sales/Earnings April 28, 2005
+852 2848 5405
@
Dennis Tao Yili 1Q05: Result and
+852 2848 7136
@ Implication for Mengniu
STOCK RATING OVERWEIGHT–V ment: Yili (, Not Rated) recently announced 1Q05 results.
Price (April 27, 2005) HK$ profit came in at Rmb76 million, up % YoY. This was driven by
52-Week Range HK$- stronger sales and reduction in operating expense. Pull-back in heavy promotional
Stock ratings are relative to the relevant MSCI country
index. activities had resulted in a rebound in operating margins vs. the low in 4Q04. Below are
some the results highlights:
INDUSTRY VIEW IN-LINE
EPS 2004 HK$
EPS 2005e HK$ Sales up 34% to Rmb2,261 million
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates This was driven by a 35% increase in dairy products sales (96% of the overall sales).
Sales of mixed feeds and convenience foods were up 13% and 21%, respectively.
According to management, prices stabilized from the heavy price war in 2H04.

Operating margin rebounded to % from low of % in 4Q04

Overall gross margin in 1Q05 came in at %, down 490bp YoY. Gross margin for

dairy products was %, down 540bp YoY. Compar