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摩根斯坦利对蒙牛的分析报告.pdf


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摩根斯坦利对蒙牛的分析报告.pdf
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Equity Research
Asia/Pacific
China China Mengniu Dairy
Consumer : Food, Bev. & o Reuters: 2319.HK Bloomberg: 2319 HK
Angela Moh Analysis of Sales/Earnings April 28, 2005
+852 2848 5405
Angela.Moh@
Dennis Tao Yili 1Q05: Result and
+852 2848 7136
Dennis.Tao@ Implication for Mengniu
STOCK RATING OVERWEIGHT–V ment: Yili (600887.SS, Not Rated) recently announced 1Q05 results.
Price (April 27, 2005) HK$5.20 profit came in at Rmb76 million, up 17.3% YoY. This was driven by
52-Week Range HK$7.10-4.30 stronger sales and reduction in operating expense. Pull-back in heavy promotional
Stock ratings are relative to the relevant MSCI country
index. activities had resulted in a rebound in operating margins vs. the low in 4Q04. Below are
some the results highlights:
INDUSTRY VIEW IN-LINE
EPS 2004 HK$0.23
EPS 2005e HK$0.32 Sales up 34% to Rmb2,261 million
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates This was driven by a 35% increase in dairy products sales (96% of the overall sales).
Sales of mixed feeds and convenience foods were up 13% and 21%, respectively.
According to management, prices stabilized from the heavy price war in 2H04.

Operating margin rebounded to 5.3% from low of 1.8% in 4Q04

Overall gross margin in 1Q05 came in at 27.8%, down 490bp YoY. Gross margin for

dairy products was 28.7%, down 540bp YoY. Comparison is more difficult against a
relatively strong 1Q04 petition did not escalate until the second quarter last year.

Operating margin rebounded to 5.3% from the low of 1.8% in 4Q04. Overall operating
expense dropped 440bp to 22.5% on lower selling and distribution expense. After a
severe level of promotional activities in 2H04 that sent margins diving, the major players
Yili Gross Margin & Operating Margin Trend took a more rational stance and reduced the sometimes irrational level of promotions.
40%
35% 35.2% 33.1% Implications for Mengniu
33.6% 34.1%
30.9% 31.2%
30% 31.5% Mengniu management had been indicating that thus far in 1Q05 they were seeing some
28.7%
27.3%
25% recovery in average pricing from the low levels in 2H04 and that the price war had been
Dairy Product Gross Margin
20% cooling off. The Yili results appear to validate that. While this is no guarantee that the
Overall Operating Margin
15% price war will not return later this year, the signs seem encouraging. We have already
10% factored in further margin decline for 2005 for Mengniu. Mengniu management is
6.4% 6.8%
5% 5.5% 5.2% 5.7% 5.3%
3.4% 3.3% hoping to stabilize margins and maybe even raise margins slightly through greater mix of
1.8%
0% newer higher margin products which can carry margins 5-6% ppt higher than mature
1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05
products. Cool-off in promotional activities and further economies of scale could
Source: Company data, Morga 内容来自淘豆网www.taodocs.com转载请标明出处.