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radientorImageplaceholderAssessingGlobalDebtThoughtleadershipfromCreditSuisseResearchandtheworld'sforemostexpertsIntroduction6LQFHWKHɇQDQFLDOFULVLV,JOREDOGHEWKDVULVHQWRDQHZKLVWRULFKLJKUHODWLYHWR*'\LPSO\WKDWZHDUHRQFHDJDLQKHDGLQJIRUDGLVUXSWLYHFULVLVLQNH\FRXQWULHVRUHYHQJOREDOO\.7KHIROORZLQJUHSRUWDWWHPSWVWRDVVHVVWKLVULVNE\\FRQFOXVLRQLVWKDWWKHUHDSSHDUWREHDQXPEHURIVSHFLɇFSRFNHWVRIULVNEXWWKDWǷV\VWHPLFǸLQVWDELOLW\VHHPVOHVVOLNHO\\UHDVRQVLVWKDWOHYHUDJHLQRXURZQVHFWRU,JOREDOEDQNLQJ,KDVUHFHGHGPDUNHGO\VLQFHWKHFULVLV,DOWKRXJKWKHUHDUHVRPHQHZDUHDVRIKHLJKWHQHGɇQDQFLDOVHFWRUOHYHUDJHRXWVLGHWKHIRUPDOEDQNLQJV\\DGYDQFHGHFRQRPLHVDVZHOODV&KLQDKDYHVHHQDPDUNHGULVHLQJRYHUQPHQW,RUJRYHUQ-PHQW-\PRGHUDWH¦PDUNHWSUHVVXUHVLPSRVHORQJHU-WHUPGLVFLSOLQHWRVRPHH[WHQW,ZKLOHORZUHDOLQWHUHVWUDWHVLQFUHDVHGHEWVXVWDLQDELOLW\.0HDQ-ZKLOH&KLQDǵVJURZWKSRWHQWLDOVHHPVVXIɇFLHQWIRUOHYHUDJHWREHNHSWLQFKHFN,$ɇQDODUHDRIKHLJKWHQHGULVNLVQRQ-ɇQDQFLDOFRUSRUDWHGHEW.&UHGLWTXDOLW\KDV,QRGRXEW,VXIIHUHGLQFHUWDLQPDUNHWVHJPHQWV.%XW,HYHQKHUH,WKHUHSRUWFRQFOXGHVWKDWULVNVVHHPVRPHZKDWPRUHOLPLWHGWKDQLQWKHODVWSHULRGRIVHULRXVVWUHVV,.&OHDUO\,DOOWKHVHFRQFOXVLRQVDUHWHQWDWLYHLQQDWXUHDQGPXVWEHFRQWLQXDOO\\,VLJQLɇFDQWSROLWLFDORUHFRQRPLFVKRFNVHPDQDWLQJIURPǷRXWVLGHǸWKHGHEWPDUNHWVSHUVHFRXOGOHDGWRVXGGHQQRQ-OLQHDULQFUHDVHVLQULVN.,HQFRXUDJH\RXWRH[,ORRNIRUZDUGWR\&KDLUPDQRIWKH%RDUGRI'LUHFWRUV&UHGLW6XLVVH*URXS$*02 Introduction04 Executivesummary08 $JXLGHWRVRXUFHVIRUGHEWGDWD11 Chapter1:HowdebthasevolvedsincetheGlobalFinancialCrisis17 'HEWFULVHV¦&RPPRQDOLWLHVDQGGLIIHUHQFHV21 Chapter2:Governmentdebt–willtheendofQEtriggerdefaults?29 7$5*(72LPEDODQFHV¦1RWDVLJQRIDKHLJKWHQHGGHIDXOWULVNLQWKH(XUR]RQH33 Chapter3:Banks–a

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