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MBA统计学.ppt

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RelationshipamongvariablesFunctionCorrelation(statisticalrelationship)YdependsonX,butisn’:price—demandforproducttemperature—demandforair-conditioningRegression—Accordingtoobservantdata,?Solvethefollowingproblems:Determinewhethertherehasstatisticalrelationshipamongvariables,ifhas,,YfollowsthenormaldistributionTheerrorprobabilityfollowsthenormaldistributionHomoscedasticity(ConstantVariance)IndependenceofErrorsLinearity3Example:X-price,Y-demandfortheproductWehavedata:(OrdinaryLeastSquareEstimation)(Yuan)708090100110Y(thousand)01SlopeY-InterceptIndependent(Explanatory)VariableDependent(Response)VariableRandomError5PopulationLinearRegressionModeli=randomerrorXYXiX01YXiii01ObservedValueObservedValueY6SampleLinearRegressionModelei=randomerrorYXYbbXeiii01^YbbXii01^YbbXii01OLSMineeeeeii2112223242PredictedValue8Coefficient&EquationsYbXbXYnXYXnXbYbXiiiiiniin011122101SampleregressionequationSlopefortheestimatedregressionequationInterceptfortheestimatedregressionequationb9EvaluatingtheModelTestCoefficientofDeterminationandStandardDeviationofEstimationResidualAnalysisTestCoefficientsofSignificance^YbbXii0110

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