区间灰数序列的灰色预测模型构建方法.pdf

第28卷第12期 Vol. 28 No. 12 控制与决策 Control and Decision 2013年12月 Dec. 2013 区间灰数序列的灰色预测模型构建方法文章编号:1001-0920 (2013) 12-1912-03 吴利丰,刘思峰,闫书丽(南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京210016) 摘 要:研究包含实数、,将区间灰数序列转变成实数序列;然后分别预测灰数层的面积和区间灰数的认知程度,推导还原得到区间灰数预测模型;最后通过与现有文献中的实例进行对比,说明了所提出的建模方法在避免区间灰数之间代数运算的情况下,提高了建模精度. 关键词:灰色系统理论;区间灰数;认知程度;混合序列中图分类号: 文献标志码:A Grey prediction model for hybrid sequence WULi-feng, LIU Si-feng, YAN Shu-li (College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210016,China. Correspondent:WULi-feng,E-mail:wlf6666@) Abstract:::The forecasting problem whose sample data including real number and interval grey number is studied. An interval grey number sequence is converted into a real number sequence by calculating the areas of grey number layers and the cognition of interval grey number. The areas of grey number layers and the cognition of interval grey numbers are predicted respectively. Then the unbiased prediction model of the interval grey number is achieved by deducing and reverting. Comparisons real example from the reference with the unbiased prediction model demonstrates that the unbiased prediction model is more accurate than other models, it is shown that this method is effective and applicable, and can avoid the calculation of interval grey number. Key words:::grey system theory;interval grey number;cog