21AM Schwarz Investment Banking View.pdf

L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\1InvestmentBankingViewoftheUtilityIndustry21September2005L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\2TableofContentsSection1UtilitySectorUpdateSection2PerspectivesonRecentStrategicActivitySection3EnergyPolicyActSection4TransmissionEnvironmentUpdateAppendixABio–:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\4Section1UtilitySectorUpdateL:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\5UtilitySectorUpdateABraveNewWorldofGrowthisEmerging…•éjàVu:ebackafter5EffectivenessatSomethingAkintothe1994-1997PeriodconsecutiveyearsoftrailingGrowthS&P500GrowthRelativetoS&P500ValueAnnualTotalReturnGrowthvaluestocksTech200030Growthcyclesget60%Niftystrongerovertime–Year-to-dateperformanceFiftyEnergy2040%PeakSectorKuwait/supportsourview,asgrowth,PeakRecession10measuredbytheBarra20%0indexes,hasmarginally0%-20%(10)-FlopsModesttellingcouldbethatgrowth-40%Value(20)ValuegrowthtilthastriumphedovervalueApr77Oct84-60%(30)anStanleyResearchSourceIbbotson,MorganStanleyResearch–However,unlikepastreboundsingrowthstocks,PastTwoGrowth/ValueCyclesCorrelationBetweenDividendGrowthandweexpectaGARPorientationCycleStartEnd#ofMthsEarningsGrowthtodominateduringthiscycleGrowthJul-89Dec-912980%72%71%–EarningsgrowthandSignsofnormalcy?60%dividendgrowthhave45%43%reconnectedafterthelongValueDec-92Jan-941340%absencethatdefinedthe20%1990sFlat/ModestGrowthTiltFeb-94May-98520%-20%GrowthMay-98Feb-0021-40%(35)%-60%ValueJul-00Nov-04531960's1970's1980's1990's2000'sSourceS&P,ThomsonFinancial,MorganStanleyResearchSourceS&P,ThomsonFinancial,MorganStanleyResearch1L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFold