Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Systems Using Monte Carlo Methods.pdf

Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Systems Using Monte Carlo Methods Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Systems Using Monte Carlo Methods Roy Billinton University 0/ Saskatchewan Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada Wenyuan Li BC Hydro Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada Springer Science+Business Media, LLC Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Billinton, Roy. Reliability assessment of electric power systems using Monte Carlo methods / Roy BIlHnton, Wenyuan Li. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and Index. Electric power systems—Reliability—Mathematics. 2. Monte Carlo method. I. Li, Wenyuan. II. Title. 1994 '1 —d C20 94-39034 CIP ISBN 978-1-4899-1348-7 ISBN 978-1-4899-1346-3 (eBook) DOI -1-4899-1346-3 ? Springer Science+Business Media New York 1994 Originally published by Plenum Press, New York in 1994 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1994 All rights reserved No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording, or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher To Joyce and Jun with thanks for constant encouragement and support Preface The application of quantitative reliability evaluation in electric power sys- tems has now evolved to the point at which most utilities use these techniques in one or more areas of their planning, design, and operation. Most of the techniques in use are based on analytical models and resulting analytical evaluation procedures. Improvements in and availability of high-speed digi- tal computers have created the opportunity to analyze many of these prob- lems using stochastic simulation methods and over the last decade there has been increased interest in and use made of Monte Ca