BCG’S VALUE MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK AN OVERVIEW FOR MBA STUDENTS精编版.pptx

BCG’SVALUEMANAGEMENTFRAMEWORKANOVERVIEWFORMBASTUDENTSByRawleyThomasDirectorofResearchTheBostonConsultingGroup200SouthWackerDriveChicago,Illinois60606312-627-2618Thomas.******@raditionalValuationTechniquesVersusBCG’sValuationFrameworkTraditionalValuationTechniquesForecastnominalcashflowsbyestimatingP&LlineitemsandchangestothebalancesheetEstimateterminalvaluewithaperpetuityoftheforecastedlastyear’petitiveenvironmentDiscountratesdeterminedbypastpricechanges,notfuturelikelycashflowsNoextensiveempiricaltestingBCG’ountingstatementstogrosscashflowsandgrosscashinvestmentsinconstantdollarstoproducecashoncashreturnsTranslatecashoncashreturnstoeconomicperformancemeasures(CFROIs)byadjustingforassetlifeandmixofdepreciatingversusnon-depreciatingassetsDeterminesustainableassetgrowthratesFadeCFROIsandassetgrowthratestowardcorporateaveragesconsistentwithlifecycletheoryandempiricalevidencetoestimatefuturecashflows(replacesterminalvaluation)EstimatemarketderivedrealdiscountratebyequatingthepresentvalueofthecashflowsforalargeaggregatetothesumofthepricesofdebtandequityApplythemarketderiveddiscountratetothecashflowsderivedfromfadingeconomicperformancetodeterminemarketvaluation;subtractdebttodetermineequityvaluationTestmodelvaluesagainstactualstockpricesforthousandsoffirmsfor10-40yearsacrossmanycountries;refine,refine,refineMANYASSETSFOLLOWTHESAMEUSEFULOUTPUTPATTERNASACAR...ConstantDollarLevelAnnuityEconomicLifeLikelyActualOutputOutputDeclinewithStraightLineDepreciationISSUESWITHTRADITIONALRETURNMEASURES(*)Economicdepreciation=amountofannualsinking-fundpaymentearningCOCrequiredtoreplaceassets($357={/[-1)](12,000-2,000)})InvestmentproanewplantSubsequentannualmeasurementYr1 Yr6 e 843 843 843Depreciation 714 714 714Cashflow 1,557 1,557 1,557Cashinvested 12,000 12,000 12,000Bookcapital 11,286 7,716 3,432ROCE(%) (%) 13 13 13CFROI(%) 10 10 10ROCE =e/bookcapitalROGI =Cashflow/ cashinvestedCFROI =(Cashflow-economicdepreciation(*))/cash invested$12,000$1,557$2,000IRR=10%