7月份大势研判.pdf

股票市场大势分析证券研究报告月度大势研判 2011 年7 月1 日七月:2700-2850 ——2011 年7 月大势研判 相关研究证券分析师魏道科 A0230511040068 weidk@ 钱康宁 A0230511040071 qiankn@ 马骏 A0230511040011 majun@ 联系人周睿(8621)23297818×7308 zhourui@ 地址:上海市南京东路 99 号电话: (8621)23297818 上海申银万国证券研究所有限公司 ?我们估计2011 年7 月上证指数主要波动区间为2700 点至2850 点。?继欧洲之后,债务危机可能在美国爆发,违约风险促使评级机构纷纷下调美债的信用评级。由于美国就业改善缓慢,一二季度经济乏力,市场近期出现了一定的关于联储推动定量宽松三的预期。但按照此前联储的经济前景预测、美国国会两党分治的政治局面、较高的名义通胀水平来看,启动 QE3 的可能性较小。? PMI 、工业生产等数据显示,国内经济继续回落,但是回落幅度明显下降; CPI 仍加速上行,通胀压力较大。我们认为经济虽然回落,但硬着陆风险不大,政策将继续以控制通胀为核心。下半年伴随着通胀的稳定,再出台大力度紧缩政策的可能将明显降低,宏观政策将会择机微调。?准备金率再次上调到 % 的高位,目的是为了回收流动性。但准备金率的边际效应也使得近期资金面异常紧张。银行间市场利率大幅飙升,经受存货比考核压力的银行大发理财产品。作为风向标,暂停央票发行更是挑动了市场中的加息神经。我们估计 7月份资金紧张会有所缓解,并可能加息一次。本公司不持有或交易股票及其衍生品,在法律许可情况下可能为或争取为本报告提到的公司提供财务顾问服务;本公司关联机构在法律许可情况下可能持有或交易本报告提到的上市公司所发行的证券或投资标的,持有比例可能超过已发行股份的 1%,还可能为或争取为这些公司提供投资银行服务。本公司在知晓范围内履行披露义务。pliance@ 索取有关披露资料或登录 信息披露栏目查询。客户应全面理解本报告结尾处的"法律声明" 。 2011年7月股票市场请参阅最后一页的信息披露和法律声明 1 申万研究·拓展您的价值 1 .上月市场分析总结·················································2 2. 上月市场运行特征统计分析·····································2 2011 年 6 月市场运行概况································································ 2 2011 年 6 月市场整体运行特征························································· 2 2011 年 6 月板块运行······································································· 4 2011 年 6 月个股表现······································································· 5 3. 市场发展环境分析····················································7 总体结论··························································································· 7 美债危机有惊无险············································································ 8 经济硬着陆风险不大········································································· 9 资金“旱”情愈演愈烈··································································· 10 4 .2011 年 7 月份行情总体估计······························· 11 7 月份行情总体估计·····················································