麦格理 全球大宗商品研究报告.pdf

麦格理 全球大宗商品研究报告 201010GLOBAL
Commodities Compendium
Commodities: Sailing with the wind
Base metals and bulk commodities have risen particularly strongly since the
release of our last Commodities Compendium in July, despite steel production
cuts in China and lingering concerns (at least in some corners) about the
European banking system , the US economy, and Chinese property sector. So
where to from here? Actually, most of our views are unchanged since our last
Commodities Compendium, notwithstanding the fact that we have become even
more bullish on the prospects for iron ore and copper in recent months.
Selectively optimistic on commodities into 2011
We remain bullish on copper, platinum, palladium and coal, while supply growth
is set to see aluminium, nickel and cobalt underperform from current price levels
over this time period. For iron ore, we have significantly upgraded our price
forecast profile this quarter owing to expectations of supply underperformance
over the medium to long term. Our confidence persists that oil scarcity remains
on the horizon, while for agricultural commodities, weather-related supply
disruptions are maintaining upward price pressure on corn, cotton, wheat and
ar