冰雹灾害的风险评估模型建立.pdf

The DeVelopment of aHailIUsk EValua— tionModel古 WeiWaⅡ91,Ⅺn Dul,Chao Zhou2 1CoIlegeofEnvir0姗ental Science andEngineering,Nankai uniVersi够,Tianjin 300071, China 2CenterofUrban PublicSafe妙,NankaiUniversity,Tianjin 30007 1,China Abstract:Under thesitIlationthatglobalwaming and thenumber ofthefamilV cars soa血&the haillossriskwillbemore totheha订loss risk tocardamage,t11e paper discuses acorresponding evaluationmodel a11d asimulation analysis oftllehaillossesof cars inTianiin baSed on tllehistoncal indicated thatthemodel can tiveIv evaluate thehaillosses even ifthere no sum. 】ation. KeywOrds:Hail disasters,RiskeValuation,Model 冰雹灾害的风险评估模型建立王炜1,杜鑫1,周超2 1南开大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300071,中国 2南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津300071,中国摘要:在气候变暖和家庭轿车的迅速发展的趋势的形势下,未来冰雹灾害造成损失风险会更加严重。文章根据冰雹灾害对汽车可能造成的损失风险,创新性地建立了相应的评估模型。并且利用天津市的历史统计资料,对天津地区的冰雹对汽车造成的损失做了模拟分析。分析结果表明,在资料信息不足的情况下,模型可以有效地评估冰雹灾害造成的汽车损失。关键词:冰雹灾害,风险评估,模型 HaildisasterSbreak out fkquentlV in thesituationof910bal mate wanning’the haillosseswillbe more sedous to the I℃1evant infbnnation .theeconomic lossescaused bvhaildisasters can reach up toseveml hundred millions or even billionsRMB .Forexample, in Iruler Mongolia theaIulual average livestock andpersonnel casualtycaused by hailis respectively 28 8and most vere haildisaster occurred inEduoke Ballner