广东省环境库兹涅茨曲线研究.pdf

摘 要
环境库兹涅茨曲线(简称 EKC)是指环境压力与人均收入呈一种倒“U”形的关系，即
指环境压力随着人均收入的提高而增加到一定水平后，环境压力会随着收入的再提高而
下降。环境库兹涅茨曲线在广东省也明显存在。改革开放以来，尽管广东的经济经历了
长达 30 多年的持续高速增长，人均收入不断提高，但生态环境同时也受到极大的破坏。
经济增长与环境恶化、资源耗竭以及污染排放的两难冲突已经引起人们对广东经济可持
续发展的重新思考。如何正确处理发展经济与保护环境的关系，实现经济社会与生态文
明的协调发展，已成为当前一个迫切需要解决的问题。对广东省环境库兹涅茨曲线的研
究，正是迎合了这种需要。
本文通过广东省近年来的人均 GDP 和主要污染物排放量的统计数据，对广东省经
济增长与环境污染的关系进行分析，探讨广东省的环境库兹涅茨曲线（Environmental
Krueger Curve，EKC）模型，并分析广东省环境库兹涅茨曲线的形成原因和揭示其产生
规律，在此基础上进一步探讨了在广东生态文明建设中应如何认识经济发展与环境保护
之间的辩证关系、怎样发挥科学技术在生态环境建设中的作用以及建立促进社会经济与
生态环境协调发展的长效机制等问题。本研究的意义有以下几点：可定量揭示广东省经
济增长与环境污染程度之间的关系，认识其经济增长与环境质量变化之间的规律；查明
最大环境污染程度出现的范围，即环境库兹涅茨曲线的拐点，以便将其控制在环境容量
之内；可为广东省环境与经济协调发展提供决策参考和管理需求，为制定合理的环境经
济政策提供科学依据。

关键词：生态文明；环境保护；科学技术；库兹涅茨曲线
I
Abstract
The Environment Kuznets Curve hypothesis, which came to know by research with the
income-inequality relationship by Simon Kuznets propose that there is an inverter-U shape
relation between Environmental stresses and per income. It had been taken to imply that
economic growth will eventually redress the environmental impacts of the early stage of
economic development。Although the economic growth of Guangdong kept to more than 30
years, there is EKC in Guangdong, too. Economic growth, environmental degradation,
resource depletion, pollution, which made people of Guangdong rethought to the renew
development. To research EKC of Guangdong, we know that how we should deal with the
relationship between Environment and Economic, and bring about coordinating development,
which has become a problem need to be solved. This paper gives us a result that EKC is a key
focus of the study to the relationship between Environment and Economic, and gives us some
suggestion to renew development.
This paper，by the statistical date of per capita GDP and the key pollutions in Guangdong
Province, it shows the characteristic cause of EKC of Guangdo