关键字 ARMA-GARCH 模型;国债指数;收益率序列;预测 Empirical research of treasuries indexes using ARMA-GARCH models
Abstract
Since the European debt crisis occurs, many economists and measurement statisticians begin to focus their attentions on the Treasury bond market. The national debt, which is the reflection of national credit, has the value of revealing the national credibility. Therefore, it will be a very meaningful issue to make quantitative data analysis and prediction of the Treasury bond market trend with the measurement statistics tools to achieve the purpose of risk control. In this thesis, we mainly use the ARCH type models to study our country’s Treasury index yield sequence. Through the research, we find that, it will present a certain seri