Probability Bounds Analysis in Environmental Risk Assessment.pdf
Probability bounds analysis in environmental risk assessments W. Troy Tucker and Scott Ferson Applied Biomathematics 100 North Country Road Setauket, New York 11733 troy@ , scott@ Copyright 2003 Applied Biomathematics, All rights reserved worldwide 2 Table of contents 1. Introduction................................................................................................... 3 2. Background ................................................................................................... 4 3. Deriving putin g probability bounds ............................................. 5 Parametric models.................................................................................. 6 Nonparametric models............................................................................ 8 Empirical models .................................................................................. 12 Assumed distributions........................................................................... 13 with probability bounds...................................................... 13 A numerical example............................................................................. 17 Another numerical example .................................................................. 20 4. Probability bounds pared to Monte Carlo simulation....... 21 Uncertainty and variability................................................................... 22 Construction of input variables ............................................................ 23 Point estimates and their uncertainty............................................ 23 Probability distributions................................................................ 25 Probability distributions w ith uncertain parameters ..................... 25 Uncertainty regarding the choice of probability distribution........ 26 Uncertainty about variability ........................
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